WTA Brisbane - Amelie Mauresmo (FRA) vs Marion Bartoli (FRA)

Interesting match between two French players in one of the semi finals of this tournaments. Amelie Mauresmo surprised everyone by taking out Ana Ivanovic, the number one seed of this tournament and main favorite to win the title. The French appeared confident, motivated and finally decided to use all her variation of slices and spins to drive Ivanovic crazy and then finish the points with some phenomenal overheads that only she can do so well. Mauresmo celebrated effusively at the end of the match and that's normal. After so many struggles, she finally had a big win and this may have been what she was looking for to come back to her real level. But if there is something she has never lacked, even during her slump, is her superiority over her country mates. In fact, she is 17-2 since 2006 against fellow French players and even during her horrible season of 2008, she still went 6-1 against French players, including two wins and no losses against Alize Cornet, a Top 20 player. With confidence, Amelie has one of the best serves in the circuit, a technically perfect backhand and an all-court style, capable of adapting to every kind of player.

Her opponent for this semi final will be Marion Bartoli, who has never defeated Amelie before, with Mauresmo having won the four matches between them. Bartoli had a very easy draw this week, as she faced an Australian wild card, Melinda Czink and Tathiana Garbin in the previous rounds. Bartoli's serve has been struggling this week and she has committed 7 and 8 double faults on her last two matches. But the big edge of Mauresmo in this matchup is clearly the movement on court. Mauresmo is one of the best movers in the circuit, while Bartoli, even though she is fitter this season still lacks the natural skills of Mauresmo in terms of later movement and ability to hit well the ball in movement. The two handed style of Bartoli in both wings won't help her neither, as with the variation of Mauresmo working well, there isn't much Bartoli will be able to do in the baseline. Also Bartoli likes to hit the ball well inside the baseline, something Mauresmo won't let her, as Amelie possesses one the most penetrative ground strokes of the circuit when confident, especially on her backhand side.

I expect Mauresmo to come to the court extremely confident after such a big win over Ivanovic and to use the same tactic that she used yesterday. Bartoli struggles in moving into the forecourt and Mauresmo will mix slices with top spin shots and Bartoli won't have any answers for that. I expect Mauresmo to continue her superiority against her country mates in here. Take Mauresmo to win.

Regular Play on Amelie Mauresmo 

Hello Pregame Community

Although we lost the Underdog play of the month it was still a winning day, for today I have two plays: a side play and a total play

Wednesday recap:

 My double dime play yesterday was on the Bobcats and it was an awful play. In a game with such characteristics as my play was, it is important that the dog starts in a good way, if that doesn't happen there is a huge possibility of the dog quitting of fighting for the game, well, the Bobcats trailed 12-29 in the first quarter and the pick was lost already in the first 12 minutes, the good news is that it was a positive day for us. Meanwhile, Boston continues to struggle, 2-6 last 8 games, are you kidding me? They will play next Friday in Cleveland! 2-7 L9? It will be interesting to observe the line for that game� In the other big game of the night the Magic completed their revenge game against Atlanta, both team will meet again in Friday and it will be an interesting game as well. Toronto, Philadelphia and Indiana won on the road proving that they are more competitive lately especially the Sixers who without Elton Brand are now playing the same style of the last season which gave them a playoff spot. Finally a special word for Minnesota, they spanked the young Thunder by 42 points! Al Jefferson is averaging 24.8 ppg and 12.3 prg in the last 6 games, impressive!

New York Knicks @ Dallas

The Mavericks needed a 11-1 run to hold off the shorthanded Clippers winning by just 5 points while being a 13 points favorite, clearly this team isn't playing at their best lately: they won at home against Minny and the Sixers but they had to rallied on the second half of each games to grab the wins, then they lost by 20 points in Memphis against a team that they had won the previous 13 games and finally their sloppy win against the Clippers. The good news is that the Mavericks will play tonight against the Knicks who are struggling right now; they lost in Oklahoma against the Thunder in game where they trailed by 23 points (the biggest lead the Thunder had this season so far) so I expect a better performance tonight, take note that the Knicks are 4-1 ATS on the road against Western conference teams being underdogs.

LA Clippers @ San Antonio

So far this NBA season is a weird season, I mean, look to the Clippers: they are without PG Baron Davis, his backup Jason Hart is also injured, PF Zach Randolph is still out , C Chris Kaman is out since October and their bench is without Mike Taylor and Ricky Davis, even with all these absences they managed to cover the last 3 games against top teams: Phoenix, Detroit and Dallas, in all three games they lost only by single digits points� ridiculous?! Tonight they will play in San Antonio against a team who already are the second best team on the West; The Spurs won 14 of the last 17 games and they are coming from a nice win in Miami. Do you know that they are the best 3pts team of the league? They are the only team who is shooting above 40% behind the arc, in fact the top 3 players in 3-point FG percentage currently have 2 Spurs' players: Matt Bonner and Roger Mason Jr!

CLICK HERE to get my NBA PrimeTime *Doubleheader* Card!

Good Luck 

Ottawa vs. Boston

Minnesota vs. Philadelphia

Atlanta vs. New Jersey

Toronto vs. Montreal

Carolina vs. Florida

Dallas vs. Detroit

Pittsburgh vs. Nashville

Chicago vs. Colorado

NY Islanders vs. Calgary

Tampa Bay vs. Phoenix

Anaheim vs. LA Kings

Oregon State @ Arizona State  10:30 PM EST
Play On:  1* Oregon State +21 1/2
 
I'm expecting a low scoring game tonight which gives us a great chance of covering the huge number.  Oregon State is allowing only 61.6 points per game overall and 60.7 points per game on the road this year.  Sun Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.  Sun Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater.  Beavers are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Arizona St.  We'll recommend a small play on Oregon State tonight!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Rocky has a 3* CBB Double Dime play and his 5* NBA Triple Dime Game of the Month going on Thursday!  Rocky is 6-0 100% last 3 days all sports!  Rocky is 29-16 64% last 45 CBB plays this year.  Rocky has had only 1 losing NBA regular season in his entire career spanning 13 years.

It's been a long-time awaiting. Finally, I'll be able to write a little regarding my thoughts on everything going on the the world, ranging from sports to the economy. Heck, maybe I'll write about our new Pepsi logo, which I was involved with.

Going forward, hopefully, I'll be able to learn from every one of you. This forum is all about feedback, good or bad. Criticism is what drives me, so if there is anything you feel I should do to be a better blogger, please, let me know. 

Hi Pregame community!

We are coming from a 1-1 split last night. In order to get on track for another winning week, I am releasing my NBA Wednesday Card, which includes 4 plays, with one of them being my NBA Underdog of the Month, a Double Dime Play!

As usual, I am also offering one of my plays to the community. Here it is:

  @ 
PHILADELPHIA           MILWAUKEE

Sooner or late this would happen: the Bucks are such a great ATS team this season with a 24-11-1 ATS record that in some moment, they would start to be overvalued and I think this is clearly what is happing in here.

The Bucks will probably be without their starting center Andrew Bogut for the third consecutive game and they didn't fare well without him in the previous contests. They lost clearly in Charlotte by 92-102 and in their last game they defeated the Raptors by 107-97, covering the 8.5 point spread, but this score lies about what happened on the court: the Raptors were without PG Jose Calderon and C Jermaine O'Neal and still they led the game down the stretch that game and in fact the Bucks ended the game with a 10-0 run, so a kind of letdown is expected in here.

The Sixers meanwhile are one of the most disappointing teams so far in this season. They have already burnt some picks of my own, but the fact is that they are a more competitive team lately. They are playing their unorthodox style again that so good results gave them last season. Without Elton Brand, they are again an explosive team, who relies on the fast breaks points and in their last game, they scored 29 fast break points against Houston! In fact, although they are 1-2 in their last 3 games, but they were extremely competitive in all of them: they lost by 10 points in Dallas, where the Mavericks made a huge comeback down the stretch; They lost by 2 points in San Antonio in a game decided in the last second by Tony Parker and in their last game, they defeated the Rockets by 104-96 in their best game of the season so far (while shooting 56.2% FG).

The Bucks don't fare well against the unorthodox style of the Sixers. Last season the h2h ended favorable for the Sixers 3-1 and already this season the Sixers won at home by 93-88. I expect this game to be a ballgame and with the Sixers having 7 points in here, this make the dog be a valuable bet. Take the Sixers in here.     

Regular Play on Philadelphia 76ers (+7)

CLICK HERE to get my NBA WEDNESDAY CARD W/UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE MONTH!

Good Luck 

ALLRIGHT...we have come to the end of 2008, and what a year it has been for the world of sports...Where we saw the Giants defeat the Undefeated Patriots to start it off...followed by an incredible comeback in the final minute by Kansas over Memphis to win the National Championship...then off to Boston, where the New Celtics went ahead and brought home a Championship and restored thier winning tradition...While the Redwings brought home even more "hardware" for thier storied franchise...And finally, we got to see the Fightin Phillies bring a World Series Title to a city that was in need of a Championship Team...

And along the way to reaching those finales...we as sports bettors had an entire season of match-ups...to Both, enjoy...and Profit from...

2008 was a devastating year for our economic markets...and one that we will feel the effects of, for a very long time...Many hard working, and honest people saw thier net-worth plumate as the housing markets collapsed and the stock market continued moving in one direction...following the dollar downwards...

But I'm not here to talk about the US Economy...instead, I want to take this opportunity to Both...go over the Results and Experiences of my 1st Full Year here at Pregame as a Pro-Capper...and to also discuss many of the ways that I believe we can improve on them...

For starters, it was a very difficult transition going from a Professional Sports Bettor...to a Professional Handicapper...And my goal was to simply be able to bring to Pregame, exactly what I was doing here in Las Vegas for over a decade...and for a very long time prior to that, in Philly...and that was, earning a Profit in what many refer to as the Sports Exchange...or as a Pro-Bettor...

Many of the difficulties were trying to change the timing of my wagering, because prior to sharing my work...I had the luxery of waiting until as long as I felt like it to make my wager, while now that isn't possible...Then I had to try and understand how to best help people profit with my information...I learned immediately that I can't expect bettors to have accumulated the type of bankroll yet, that would allow them to bet the way I had done for so long...And the approach the "wise-guys" have used for so long to beat the books with...But eventually with the help of all of you, I was able to slowly but surely implement my style into a way that anyone with discipline and desire can use to profit...

We created the "Heavy Hitters" and I have since been able to really make them extremely SELECTIVE wagers...which means that to compensate for any lack of volume, we will look to win as a higher rate...I also believe that having to endure some of the losing streaks that are inevitable if you plan on making money in this racket, really helped me to refine my approach and make it so much more effective...

I am fortunate to be surrounded by extremely sharp and competant people, and with thier help...I was able to go back through all of our work and look for ways to improve results because I knew from experience that we will definately be able to win more games than we lost...And through those tough stretches I was able to restructure my "Unit Distribution" so that we can get the most out of our work...

Now there is so much that I want to discuss with you all...and so many experiences over this past year that I would like to share with you...But doing so would take forever...so rather than make this an extremely long Blog...I think that I will break this down into a few Parts...where I can cover more topics in greater detail...

The Number One thing that I learned this year is that I can not control the bankrolls of anyone who chooses to follow me...I can continue to offer guidance and to educate on how to build a bank and wager correctly, like I was taught because believe me...it's not something that don't take a lot of work and self-control to achieve...And the other thing that I learned, is that I can't control when someone chooses to follow along...And that's true for anyone who is in the business of sharing investment information...

Here are the Results for 2008 : Based on a Starting Bankroll of $10k

HEAVY HITTERS = +$3,559 Profit....ALL-ACCESS = +$1,508 Profit

Before we break it down a bit...I want to add that although we did turn a profit, which is huge in any market...especially during these economic times...but more importantly...After going through all of our work, we realized that by not employing the "UInit Distribution" that we now are...we cost ourselves close to "70" UINITS of PROFIT...

That's Correct...If I had simply used the EXACT system we are using now...that Profit on "Heavy Hitters" would be closer to "100 UNITS" and the "All-Access" closer to "80 UNITS" of Profit...

Now that is a huge difference, and as much as it pisses me off for missing out on that Profit...I am so grateful to all those who helped me come to the conclusion that we needed to really put more emphasis on Units...and to realize that I was not passing along the information in a manner which would offer the most Profit...

But the Bottom Line is that we not only Turned a Profit for 2008...But also learned how to Profit more in the future from the same results...

Now I know why so many very successful and wealthy sports bettors have refused to share thier work...and believe me, since coming to Pregame...RJ will tell you, that I have tried to recruit some real Big Time Winners from here in Vegas...but so far, they all have said I am crazy for doing it...

The truth is, I am doing this because I know that I can beat them and I want to help others do the same thing...But I also am one who tells it like it is and this is by far, one of the toughest rackets you can choose to make money in...It takes a lot of time, discipline, and hard work...and even then there are no guarantees...Because like any market, information becomes the most important factor...

And how you use it becomes the 2nd most important factor...which is why I continue to be in the forums and accessable to my guys so that I can try to show them how to profit and what to expect...Because I will tell you from experience and I have worked with and for, the most winningest sports betting outfits ever...and even they have to endure losing stretches that would leave most bettors broke if they don't know how to play the game...Look, there are no short-cuts, sure things, or ez money...

The way you make money in this business is like any other...You have to know how to save, spend, and progress...and you have to treat this like a business so that it pays like one...

I started my career in this industry as a bookmaker, and eventually was convinced by groups that I saw win year after year that I could make more money betting for them and with them...than I could booking...That brought me to Vegas and that is exactly what I did for a very long time until the time came to form my own group more or less and begin calling the shots on which games I want to bet...

I was lucky to have made the kind of contacts that very few people could imagine having...and I have continued growing my information network to include sharps, books, ticket writers, ect...because info is info and the more of it you have, the better chance you have of beating the market...Then RJ approached me with an idea and his passion for what he was trying to do and bring to Pregame...

I have never brought this up because it really isn't anyone's business...but to better explain just how much I believe in this concept...Of getting a group of cappers together who have valuable info, and sharing it with recreational and serious bettors...The truth is, I have not ever taken home "1 cent" of any income made by sharing my info...I sign over my check every single month to Pregame, for stock in the company because like I said...I believe in the vision of creating something that has never been available before...

And I believe that with time...Pregame will continue to show why it truely is like no other site on the web...But now I have gone all over the place because you know me...when I get going, it's tough to stop because I love this business, I love what I do...and I can talk about sports betting forever and not get bored...

But the purpose of this Blog was to post my results for 2008...and although it wasn't the best year ever...The Bottom Line is that it was a Winning Year...I won the first 4 months during the Pro-Bettor Challenge...and then I won the 12 months following it...Now some may say, that isn't the biggest profit I've seen...But it's based on only $10k, which was more or less never at risk because even during losing streaks, we were simply giving back profit most of the time...

And what I am proud of is that this was my 1st Year of a huge transition...and I still found a way to turn a profit and beat the books...And now, with more experience and a bigger network...we will only get stronger and better results, because this is what I do and this is what I have used to provide for myself and my loved ones my entire life...RJ says, this is a guy who lives off his winnings...and I am proud to say it's the truth...But I also want to caution others who want to do the same...

Sure you can do it, because I am no smarter than anyone else...But be warned, it is going to take a lot of time to get your bankroll to where each game and each night is insignificant...It's going to take a lot to learn how to endure and overcome the ridiculous losing streaks that will come with the business of investing in this market...But look, if I could do it...which is proven by the results...then anyone who truely want to can...

Some may say that those results are no big deal...and that is one of the problems I've seen with sports bettors...The inability to treat this like any other investment...and if you bought stock for $10k and 12 months later it was worth almost $14k...you would be pretty happy...And others may say, that with the fees...there wouldn't be much profit left...possibly even loss if you didn't take advantage of the yearly price...But again, I can not control what someone is able to bet and taking it to this type of level isn't for everyone...But the bottom line is, that the info showed a profit and with the Unit Distribution we are using now...it would have, and certainly will in the future...show even more...

Finally, although we will touch on more with later Blogs...the one thing that I wanted to really point out is the fact that we turned a profit...We went through good and bad...easy and tough...and in the end, we came out holding the dough...And there are not that many Pro Sports Bettors that can say that, because trust me...if they could, they would...But there is a reason you won't see account balances, and a reason why records shown are very selective...

I prefered to respect you guys...and tell it like it is, rather than how I would like it to be, or how it sounds best...Because I realized that today's bettors are so much sharper than we were...So I trusted that fact, and the fact that you guys are sophisticated enough in this racket to know just how few handicappers can actually say that thier info turned a profit for the year...

Thanks again for all your support...and Best of luck...Like I said, we will continue this discussion as I get more feedback and I plan on covering a series of topics about the past year over the next few days/weeks...Vegas-Runner

            The so-called experts on television proclaimed several times that this NFL season is one of the wackiest ever.  They were amazed after each week of the regular season as favorites routinely lost outright.  In addition, they were shocked with the turnarounds that Baltimore, Miami, and Atlanta had.  They also showed amazement with the drop-offs of Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Green Bay.  However, one thing that is never spoken is the great deal of parody in the NFL and that any team can win on any given week.  Let?s take a deeper look at this concept.

            The sports media had several darlings this season.  Dallas, New York Jets and Giants, Washington, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Carolina, Arizona, and Tampa Bay were all beat down after a week of being praised by the major networks.  In fact, almost all of those losses were out at home when they were favored by a decent margin.  There are two important things to be taken from this trend.  First, the teams listed above all experienced at least one week where everyone was telling them how good they were.  Meanwhile, their opponents had to listen to comments and questions about how good the other team was.  Consequently, the underdog came out fired up with a chip on their shoulder and got a dominating outright win.  The second point to take away is that odds makers inflate the lines in these games.  These teams are bigger favorites than they should be, especially if they weren?t coming off of big wins.  We saw this trend once again last week in the 1^st round of the NFL playoffs.

            Atlanta was a favorite of the media, as they finished the season well, including a road win over Minnesota.  They also had a chance to get a 1^st round bye, but Carolina kicked a last second field goal to beat New Orleans and win the NFC South.  Meanwhile, Arizona had a disastrous end to the season.  They lost four out of their last six games, including blowout losses to Philadelphia, Minnesota, and New England.  As a result, Atlanta ended up as the favorite, despite being the road team.  If these two teams would have played earlier in the season, Arizona would have been at least a three point favorite at home.  The Cardinals used the lack of attention and underdog role to get a big home win over their more publicized opponent.  Once again, the media was almost baffled as to how Arizona could beat an Atlanta team that looked so good to end the season.

            This weekend features four excellent playoff match-ups, as well as some teams that have been getting a great deal of praise this week.  Baltimore and Philadelphia had good wins last week and got the most attention from the highlight shows.  However, Miami had a great deal of success moving the ball on them in the 2^nd half but couldn?t capitalize.  Meanwhile, Philadelphia used an interception return for a touchdown, as well as a long touchdown pass to get the bulk of their points.  Basically, both the Eagles and Ravens had weaknesses despite their wins last weekend.

            As the NFL playoffs progress, always consider which team is getting too much praise from the media, as these teams are usually overvalued and don?t bring the same intensity as their underdog opponents.

http://pregame.com/pregamepros/bettors.aspx?CapperId=11925

New Jersey vs. Carolina

Philadelphia vs. Washington

Minnesota vs. Boston

Ottawa vs. Buffalo

Columbus vs. Detroit

Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh

Florida vs. Toronto

Colorado vs. Nashville

Chicago vs. Phoenix

LA Kings vs. Anaheim

San Jose vs. Calgary

Depth is everything!

Tonight Canisius welcomes Manhattan into the confines of Koessler Athletic Center, and everyone is licking their chops because the Golden Griffins stink, and Manhattan just got finished whipping them by 18 points a few weeks ago.

As usual, Vegas slapped a "Pick-em" on this game, even though it seems as though The Griffs have very little chance to win.

When I think of Canisius I remember the phrase, "The best thing about Freshman is that they eventually become Sophomores." This may be the case with The Golden Griffins, because they were the 6th youngest team in the nation last year, and now they are the 40th youngest.

My how we've grown!

Unfortuantely they still stink.

And here's one of the reasons why:

They have an 11/18 Assist-to-Turnover ratio, and they steal only 5 balls per game.

There's a number of reasons why they stink, but this is the number sequence that delivers the biggest punch when we talk about screen failures in the KM system.

But we have to get past this fact.

They are young.

They make bad decisions.

They foul 22 times per game.

They turn the ball over like it's a diseased kidney.

We have to get past those facts, because........

THE MEN THAT DRIVE THE MARKET PLACED THE LINE AS AN EVEN WAGER!

This is just a fair warning on getting gluttonous on a wager that looks too good to be true. We love Manhattan tonight, but it's not because they beat the Griffs badly in their last meeting. IT'S JUST OPERATIONAL. We think Manhattan is simply better. Everything points to them being better.

So what's the deal?

Believe it or not, with all that lousy offensive behavior, Canisius is VERY good in FG% defense! And they Have a really strong perimeter defense on the ARC. They tend to run a lot of guys out there, so they DO play aggressively on the edges.

We have 3 bench players that jump out on the edge for little, spurts, that amount to 15 minutes of time each. This tends to work on a visiting team, and it's an unseen fact to almost every bettor.

I guess it's a "hustle stat", that is best realized at HOME.

Be careful of it.

Manhattan runs out THREE strong guards, and when they aren't running they tend to go BIG, but the main point is that Manhattan CAN become tired on the perimeter if Canisius plays their rotation correctly. They don't have the depth at the guard spot.

Canisius, as bad as they are, can be better when they trot out a slew of dummies on 3 good guards. 

And this is why I hate laying more than a Unit tonight on Manhattan. We have 3 guards that will be running against 6 guards, and if you'll remember, it was an energized Jasper backcourt that ripped Canisius for 11 three-pointers in the last game.

When Vegas knows something, they don't fool around. We got this GREAT line, because they wanted to lure us in, and they did, because we should win this wager.

But I just wanted you to understand the mechanics of a trap, and I wanted you to see why we can't jump to 2-Units in this wager.

We have Manhattan -1 (-110), and I truly believe we will win, but NEVER get too giddy about these tiny mid, mid majors. They don't have the depth to replicate 18 point wins.

But all we need is two!

Let's get this!

I have three plays for today:

ATP Brisbane - Bobby Reynolds (USA) vs Kei Nishikori (JPN)

Bobby Reynolds has been one of the player who most places climbed in the past few months in the circuit. The American journeyman loves to play on hardcourt and that's mostly due to his style of play. Reynolds possesses a big serve, feels extremely comfortable on the forecourt, including the net, moves nicely on the court and hits very well from both wings. But what really improved on him in the last few months was the consistence. He improved so much that he was able to win a set against Roger Federer in Basel, in the past Autumn. His confidence is at sky rocket levels, as he is currently in a 8-match winning streak and cruised in the qualifying of this tournament, with a big win over Xavier Malisse yesterday in the final round. This win over Xavier Malisse (who had had little trouble in defeating the tough Simon Stadler and Peter Luczak in the previous rounds) showed how confident Reynolds is right now.

He will now face Kei Nishikori, one of the most talented players of his generation. However, the Japanese player is in a very tough spot. The worst thing it can happen for a player on his first match of the season is to face someone coming from the qualifying, with three wins already on their belt. While Nishikori will need to try to find his rhythm and he will obviously rusty, Reynolds will be confident and perfectly adapted to the conditions of the court. Nishikori possesses a massive forehand and he is already one of the best movers of the circuit, but he is still inconsistent and has regularly fitness problems, which will be a concern in here on the high temperatures of Australia and with his being the first match Nishikori will ever play on Professional level on this country.

Bobby Reynolds have already proved that he loves to play in Australia (he reached the 3rd round of the Australian Open coming from the qualifying in 2005, qualifying once again to the Australian Open in 2007 and took Andreas Seppi to 5 sets in the 1st round and last season, Reynolds took current Top 10 player Gilles Simon to 5 sets in the 1st round of the Australian Open). I expect Reynolds to bring his A game again and take advantage of Nishikori, who will be lacking rhythm and will commit more errors with his forehand than usual. Take Bobby Reynolds to win in here.

Regular Play on Bobby Reynolds ML @ +130


ATP Brisbane/ATP Doha - Juan Carlos Ferrero vs Florent Serra & Arnaud Clement vs Diego Junqueira

Juan Carlos Ferrero is always considered a past his prime player, but even though he isn't at the same level that took to the first place in the rankings, it doesn't mean he isn't a good player anymore. Ferrero has always been successful in this area of the globe (Australia and New Zealand) and for example last season, he reached the final of Auckland and the fourth round of the Australian Open. Ferrero possesses an underrated serve and he is mostly known for his great counter punching game, where his great mobility on the court allows him to reach almost every ball. However, Ferrero can also be a good aggressor from the baseline, with his extremely penetrative forehand, which he prepares beautifully with his good footwork. The Spanish player just struggles against powerful opponents, which put him on a very passive position, but that's certainly the case of his today's opponent, Florent Serra.

The French player has a decent serve, but he will need to serve lights out against one of the best returners in the world. Serra's main tactic is to stay solid and wait for the errors of his opponents, however that's very unlikely to happen in a big quantity in a match against one of the most solid baseliners in the circuit. Serra also possesses a decent forehand, but certainly not at the same level of Ferrero's forehand. He is also a decent mover on the court, but once again not at the same level of Ferrero and especially not with the same tenacity and fighting spirit of the Spanish player. Both players have similar styles and on a neutral surface, the better player should prevail easily and the player in here is Ferrero.


Every year, we have some South American player, who due to very good performances at challenger level on clay get finally access to play the main draws of the ATP tournaments. Obviously, there aren't tournaments on clay every single week and sometimes these players need to play some ATP tournaments outside clay. And what happens is a disaster for them and easy wins for their opponents. That's the case of Diego Junqueira. The Argentinian player had a great season, which put him inside the Top 80 in the rankings. However, the number of matches he has played outside clay at ATP level is... 0! Also his style of play doesn't match well in any other surface than clay. Junqueira has a poor serve and he clearly lacks power and depth on his ground strokes. He compensates that with a great mobility and defensive game on clay, but that's not possible to do on hardcourt.

His opponent today will be the veteran Arnaud Clement, who will obviously take the opportunity of getting these free points for his ranking. The French player has a decent serve, with variety, placement and consistence. He also likes to serve & volley, which will make him hold serve very easily against a player who will be a couple of meters behind the baseline. Also Junqueira's tactic is to wait for errors of his opponents and that's unlikely to happen against Clement, who has a very solid baseline game, with great variety on his shots, including a very good sliced backhand. The Frenchman has everything on his side for his match and anything but a really easy win for Clement in here will have to be considered as a surprise.

Regular Play Parlay on Juan Carlos Ferrero x Arnaud Clement @ +110


ATP Chennai - Andreas Beck (GER) vs Roko Karanusic (CRO)

Not the most attractive match of the week at first sight, but this is clearly a game with a lot of value. Andreas Beck has highly improved in the recent past and he is really close to enter the Top 100 for the first time on his career. Actually a win in here should be enough for him to achieve his goal. Beck possesses a great serve, with the 1st delivery giving him a lot of cheap points and the 2nd delivery being also very good and hard to attack while returning it. The German player likes to stay at the back of the court, where he hits some very decent ground strokes, which are extremely penetrative. His best shot is clearly his powerful double handed backhand, where he can really put his opponent struggling to return the balls back. Beck has also showed that he is not afraid of the big stages of the ATP tournaments and even Grand Slams, like his straight sets win over John Isner at the US Open last season or his great fight against Rafael Nadal in the first round of Wimbledon (4:6 4:6 6:7) can easily show.

His opponent today will be Roko Karanusic, who is basically the opposite of Beck. The Croatian clearly suffers from big stage fright and he is 3-20(!) on matches played on main draws of ATP tournaments against the current Top 105! The Croatian player has just an average serve and highly inconsistent, which can easily be attacked by the penetrative return shots of Beck. Another major problem of Karanusic is his terrible footwork and shot selection, which cause him to commit an unbelievable number of errors during a match. Against such a power hitter like Beck, Karanusic would need to defend and move well to return the big shots of Beck and that sounds extremely unlikely to happen in here.

Both players are basically at the same level in the rankings and that's the reason why the odds for this match are basically 50/50 for each player. However, Beck is climbing in the rankings right now and he should be able to climb another 20 or 30 places in the next few months, while Karanusic will continue to keep going up and down in the Top 100 limbo until the end of his career. The edge on the serve department of Beck should make the difference in here and that's why I'm taking the German player to win in here.

Regular Play on Andreas Beck ML @ -105

Hi Pregame community!

Starting from today, I'll write and put my daily NBA previews on the blog.

I think it's easier in that way for the members you want informations about the games.

NBA Daily Preview:

 San Antonio @ Miami

The Spurs started their last game with a 40-19 run against the Sixers and they almost blew up the lead and only a late shot by Tony Parker secured the win for the Spurs. It's not usual to watch the Spurs involved in so many ballgames, in fact, 5 of their last games were decided by 6 or fewer points. Tonight they travel to Miami to face a team which the Spurs remember well because of their last game. Remember that Miami won at San Antonio by 99-83, in a game where Tony Parker got injured and the nation questioned if the Spurs could reach the Playoffs this season. Well, they are second on the West right now and they have revenge in this game, however we must not forget that Miami lately won at home against the Lakers and Cleveland and that Dwayne Wade can make the difference.


Sacramento @ New Jersey

Devin Harris is questionable for tonight's game and he's crucial for the Nets, as they are 0-4 without Harris this season! The good news is that they will play a team who is 2-13 on the road this season. Sacramento has already lost their first two games of their road trip, but it's important to say that they gained a new soul with the return of Kevin Martin. With him the Kings covered the spread in Detroit and Indiana despite losing those games. Martin had a monster game in Indiana by scoring 45 points and this team of the Kings will sooner or later win some games.


Toronto @ Milwaukee

The Raptors made yesterday their best game so far of this season and won by 108-102 against Orlando despite the injuries of Jermaine O'Neal and Jose Calderon. The most impressive fact is that Dwight Howard had a monster game with 39 points, but the Raptors still managed to win. Today they have a tough game in Milwaukee against the Bucks. The Bucks lost in Charlotte by 92-102 in a home-home series with Charlotte. They have alternated wins with losses in the last 5 games, but the bottom line is that they are one of the best ATS teams on the league. They are 8-2 ATS as home favorites and an impressive trend of 5-0 ATS as home favorite after losing a game.


Golden State Warriors @ Utah Jazz

Do you know that the Jazz are currently out of the playoff picture? That's right, they are 19-15 and they have failed to win more than two straight games since they opened the season with a 5-0 record. The good news is that only all star Carlos Boozer remains injured, Paul Millsap returned nicely against the Lakers with 16 points and 17 rebounds and even Matt Harpring is playing some minutes. The Warriors lost their last 2 games against Minnesota and Oklahoma; Those 2 games were winnable games so they aren't in a good mood. 11.5 points just look like too much for this game, but it's important to say that the Warriors are 1-6 ATS as double digits underdogs and Utah owned them in the past seasons and they won all three games of this series last season by an average of 18 points!


Indiana @ Denver

Denver began against the Hornets a span of 7 consecutive home games and although they have won their last 3 games, they didn't impress anyone. In their last game they led the Hornets by 77-51 midway in the 3rd quarter, but they almost blew that lead. I remember that they already won at Oklahoma in a last second shot by Carmelo Anthony. Today they will face the Pacers who just won 2 games in a row and believe it or not this team was involved in 9 consecutive ballgames where the biggest differential was just 8 points. They start today a hard five game road trip on the West facing Denver, Phoenix, Lakers, Warriors and Utah. Danny Granger is an All Star caliber player and probable we will watch a shootout tonight between Anthony and Granger.

We are coming from another winning week and on the NBA and for today, I'll be releasing my NBA Monday Card, in order to start another winning week.

CLICK HERE to get my NBA MONDAY DOUBLE PLAY!

Good luck!

 ATP Brisbane - Richard Gasquet vs Marc Gicquel & Robby Ginepri vs Julien Benneteau

Very interesting match to open the ATP season of 2009. Richard Gasquet is going to open his season in the new tournament in Brisbane (formerly played in Adelaide) and he seems to be highly committed for this season. He has a new coach and he is also promising to be more aggressive this season. Also he was the first European to arrive to Brisbane last Monday and he has already stated that he likes the new courts, whose surface (plexicushion) is basically the same from the Australian Open.

"It's a really, really great arena, the court is great,'' said seventh-seed Gasquet. "It should be a very good tournament for us because the court is not too fast and not too slow. It's good because you can play serve and volley and you can play from the baseline because it's not slow and it's not fast, it's good for every player.''

These are great news for Gasquet, who is known for liking the mid-fast hardcourt surfaces, where he can use his great game variety better, alternating between serve & volley and baseline rallies, where he can use his ground strokes (especially his one handed backhand) to hit some great looking winners. He has a solid 12-7 record in this area in the Globe since the 2006 season and he will face in his first match of the season Marc Gicquel, another French player.

Marc Gicquel is also a good player for this type of surface, but certainly not at the same level of Richard Gasquet. However, Gicquel won the last match between the two last season in grass by 7-6 7-5, in a game where Gasquet went 0-7 in break points conversion. So, I expect Gasquet to take this match very carefully. Gicquel has a good serve, with some heavy ground strokes, but the fact that he hits the ball extremely flat gives him little margin of error and that's why he ends up self-destroying so many times. Just like Gasquet, Gicquel also possesses a very inconsistent forehand, but he certainly didn't possess the other weapons that Gasquet has, like a good backhand for example.

This surface is certainly not as fast as the grass surface where these two players faced each other for the last time and that will favor Gasquet, who is the better returner of the two and he is also the most consistent player. Gasquet is 16-5 against fellow French players in the past two seasons and I expect him to punish the second serve of Gicquel enough times to get a comfortable win in here.



Another interesting match in today's card will oppose Robby Ginepri and Julien Benneteau. Ginepri has won the only match between these two players back in 2006 at the US Open and I expect the same to happen in here. Since Ginepri had the very good idea of hiring Jose Higueras (former coach of Jim Courier, Pete Sampras, Carlos Moya, Sergi Brugera and Roger Federer - all of them Grand Slam Winners) last season, the American player improved a lot his movement on court, as also his match tactics and fighting spirit. Ginepri, who used to lack motivation to play some smaller tournaments, is now working hard under Higueras' wing and the results are visible. He is the current number 51 in the rankings, the best position he had in the past three seasons. Don't forget that last season at this very same time, Ginepri was way out of the Top 100 and was struggling in the qualifying draws of some minor ATP tournaments.

Robby Ginepri will face today Julien Benneteau, who clearly isn't a fan of Australia, as he is 3-9 on his career in matches played in ATP tournaments located in this country. The French player possesses a decent serve and can create some nice angles with his forehand, but he won't be able to dictate the points in the baseline likes he likes to against Ginepri, who is more aggressive than him and possesses also more firepower on his ground strokes. This will put Benneteau on a very defensive position, something which will make him spend a lot of energy while playing under the hot sun of the Gold Coast. The French will inevitability hit some short balls onto the other side of the court, where Ginepri won't have problems in finishing the points with either a powerful forehand and with a volley.

The only advantage Benneteau could have potentially in this matchup would be the fact that he is more consistent than Ginepri, but the American has greatly improved in the past few months and I expect him to show exactly that today and get the win in here against an inferior player.

Regular Play Parlay on Richard Gasquet x Robby Ginepri @ +102

WTA Brisbane - Samantha Stosur (AUS) vs Maria Kirilenko (RUS)

Very important match for Samantha Stosur, who will have the opportunity of debuting the first edition of this tournament and on her hometown. So, make no mistake. Samantha Stosur will give everything to win this match, which is already being called as historic by the Australian media.

Local hero Samantha Stosur will be first on court for the 2009 Brisbane International. Queensland and Australia's highest ranked tennis player has been given top billing for the first day of play, opening the tournament on Pat Rafter Arena against Russian world No.29 Maria Kirilenko. Stosur, currently ranked 52, continues to climb up the rankings on her way back from an illness-enforced lay-off. She is ready to start her 2009 campaign.

"I am really excited about playing tomorrow, it's going to be a really hard match," the Gold Coast-based player said. "I'll give it my best shot and I'm just really looking forward to playing at home again."

Samantha Stosur is currently out of the Top 50 and the only reason for that was the fact that she was injured in the beginning of the 2008 season and had to skip the whole Australian part of the season. This fact made her lose a huge amount of points and that's the only reason why she is not currently well inside the Top 30. The Australian player has one of the best serves in the circuit, not only her first delivery, but also her 2nd serve, which is full of kick and it uses to be highly praised by her opponents. Stosur loves to play with a serve & volley style and as Gasquet has referred in an interview to the Australian media, that's clearly possible in this surface. But in fact, Stosur has also some big weapons that she can use in the baseline rallies, especially her big forehand full of topspin and her recently improved athleticism and movement, two of the reasons why she is easily considered one of the best doubles players in the circuit.

Her opponent today will be the 7th seed Maria Kirilenko, who defeated Samantha Stosur in the final of Seoul last Autumn, in a close three set match. Kirilenko is also a very good player, with a decent serve, a solid baseline game and a great movement on the court, but her best results in 2008 were almost exclusively on clay, especially after the Spring. In fact, since February, Maria Kirilenko is just 3-12 outside clay against the current Top 50, with her only wins being against a lucky loser Ekaterina Makarova, a completely out of form Daniela Hantuchova and a very inconsistent Kaia Kanepi. Kirilenko had some very poor performances outside clay last season, including first round losses in both Wimbledon and the US Open. The Russian player won indeed a WTA tournament on hardcourt last season, but where she was the first seed and the highest ranked player she had to beat in that tournament was Kaia Kanepi.

Samantha Stosur uses to play very well on her home country and she has a 10-2 record in her last 12 first round matches on WTA tournaments played in Australia. Her only two losses were against Amelie Mauresmo in the Australian Open and a very close loss against Nicole Vaidisova in Sydney. Maria Kirilenko hasn't been consistently impressive on hardcourt lately and against a good player like Samantha Stosur, who will be ultra motivated and seeking revenge, I think the Australian player will take the win in here.

Regular Play on Samantha Stosur ML @ +115

WTA Brisbane - Jarmila Gajdosova (AUS) vs Shuai Peng (CHN)

The Australian (born Slovakian) Jarmila Gajdosova finished the 2008 season in style by winning 28 of her last 32 matches! Most of them were at ITF level, but during this span, she reached the semi finals of the WTA tournament of Tokyo, where she defeated tough opposition like Mara Sanatangelo, Shahar Peer and Klara Zakopalova (all former Top 30 players). Gajdosova is a player full of potential, with a very decent serve, which often goes over 180 km/h, a big return shot, where she uses all her power to overpower some weak serves of her opponents and a tremendous backhand, capable of sending most of her opponents to a few meters behind the baseline. Her big weakness was always her excess of weight, which prevented her from moving well around the court, but that has been worked during the offseason, especially after such a great span of results, which put her back into the Top 100.

Her opponent today is going to be the Chinese Shuai Peng, one of the few players in the circuit, which hits her forehand shot with both hands. The main weakness of Shuai Peng is clearly her serve, with a very deficient ball toss, which prevents her to use her height and power in her serve at 100%. Gajdosova with her blasting return of serve should be able to take advantage of this fact, which gets even worse for Peng, as the Chinese struggles sometimes on her movement on the court and on her footwork, which sends her a couple of meters behind the baseline against powerful opposition like the one she will face today. Peng hits very flat and likes to hit down the line shots, a situation that makes her a very error-prone player. However, she can change the direction of the ball very well, but for that she will need to be in control of the baseline rallies to do that, something she will struggle to do, as she should be struggling to stay in the rallies against the rockets coming into her direction from the racket of Gajdosova.

It's true that Peng is overall the best player of the two, but she is just 4-7 in this area of the planet since 2006 and last season, she lost in the first round of the Australian Open against Alisa Kleybanova, a player with a very similar style of Gajdosova. The Australian player will surely get a lot of support from the crowd and the fact that she ended last season with a 28-4 record on her last 32 matches should give her the motivation and confidence to put her high-risk game working well today. I expect this game to go to a third set and the winner to be decided just by a handful of points. Take Gajdosova plus the games in here.

Regular Play on Jarmila Gajdosova (+3,5 Games) @ -115

Good Luck 

Rocky has seven 3* CBB plays for Saturday along with a 3* NFL play.  Rocky is on a 21-10 68% CBB run.  Rocky hit 60% in the NFL regular season and has hit 60% the past 3 years with all NFL picks.  Rocky is documented in the Top 5 in the nation the past 3 years combined in NFL playoffs at The Sports Monitor.  Let's roll!  Best of luck with all your plays!

Florida vs. Pittsburgh

Buffalo vs. Boston

Calgary vs. Nashville

NY Rangers vs. Washington

Ottawa vs. Toronto

Carolina vs. Tampa Bay

Detroit vs. Minnesota

Columbus vs. St.Louis

Dallas vs. Edmonton

Philadelphia vs. LA Kings

NY Islanders vs. San Jose

Mississippi vs Texas Tech  2:00 PM EST
Play On:  Mississippi +4 1/2
 
Mississippi is 6-1 SU and 5-1 ATS in bowl games since 1992.  Rebels are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.  Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win.  Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Rebels are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Rebels are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.  Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  Rebels are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.  Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Rebels are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.  Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.  Rebels are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games on field turf.  Rebels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.  Red Raiders are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.  Red Raiders are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Bowl games as a favorite.  We'll recommend a small play on Mississippi today!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Rocky has a 3* NBA Double Dime play for Friday night!  5-1 83% last 2 days after 2-0 sweep yesterday.

Only 4 road favorites in last 7 years - 4 this week!

Las Vegas, Nevada (December 30, 2008) - All four NFL playoff road teams are favored this week: Atlanta -2 at Arizona; Colts -1 at San Diego; Baltimore -3 at Miami; Philly -3 at Minnesota.

According to RJ Bell of Pregame.com: In the prior seven seasons (dating back to 2001) only 4 road teams have been favored in NFL playoff games. The road teams are undefeated in those games, winning on all four occasions.

During those seven playoffs a combined 70 games were played (not counting Super Bowls, which are played on neutral fields with no true home team). RJ Bell of Pregame.com said: "Based upon 4 of the last 70 playoff games having road favorites, the odds all 4 rode teams being favored this week was over 93,000 to 1 against."

No road team has been bigger than a three-point favorite in the prior 7 seasons. Based upon early betting action, both Baltimore and Philadelphia have a strong chance to be favored by 3.5 points or more.

MEDIA NOTE: Print, radio, TV, and Internet media should feel free to quote any information above. Please attribute: RJ Bell of Pregame.com. For follow-up questions, or media appearances - email: rjbell@pregame.com

About RJ Bell of Pregame.com
RJ Bell, president of http://Pregame.com, has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), ESPN.com, ESPN National Radio, Yahoo, AOL.com, CNN.com and in Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Bloomberg, Maxim, and Forbes.

###

Portland State @ Baylor  8:00 PM EST
Play On:  1* Baylor -13

Baylor is a perfect 7-0 SU at home this year scoring 86 points per game while allowing only 59.1 points per game.  Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.  Bears are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win.  Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.  We'll recommend a small play on Baylor tonight!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

I have two 3* CBB Double Dime plays for Monday along with a 3* NBA Double Dime play.  Trying for my 7th straight basketball winner here tonight.  17-8 68% run in College Basketball after finishing #1 last year at 72-36 67% for the entire season! 

Revenge tastes oh so Sweet!

You couldn't write a movie script better than the drama that unfolded in New York this week. Miami and the Jets battling for the AFC East crown. Bret Favre the so called savior of the Jets who was signed just a day before the Jets first Preseason Game vs Chad Pennington who was traded shortly after the Favre signing.

How pumped up do you think Chad Pennington was coming back to New York to win the AFC East title in front of the fans and media who had been trying to run him out of town for the last several years.

As I said this kind of set up only happens in the movies right? The cast off from New York leads the 1-15 Miami Dolphins from a year ago to an 11-5 record the following year. Don't forget he didn't even get to Dolphin camp till week 2 of the Preseason.

Congrats to Chad Pennington and the Miami Dolphins on winning the AFC East and isn't it funny that the two main characters in this summer's soap opera are both home watching the Playoffs. Green Bay who wanted Aaron Rogers instead of Favre and the N.Y. Jets who wanted Favre instead of Pennington.

The grass isn't always greener on the other side... 

NY Islanders vs. NY Rangers

Montreal vs. Florida

San Jose vs. Dallas

Minnesota vs. Calgary

Nashville vs. Colorado

Columbus vs. LA Kings