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It's been a while, with some system issues taking up most of my time, but I'm back with (hopefully) regular updates again.
The System B model has been performing well over the past month, with our core position in Copper continuing to help our performance numbers. Virtually no positions have changed since our last post on 7/29, with several exceptions. We covered our short in Cotton on 8/3, for a gain of $3,365, and we sold our long Crude position on 8/14 for a loss of $3,850. Finally, yesterday, we sold 1 Contract of cotton on the close (again). Good luck and have a great evening! ![]() I will be out of the Office for two week starting Tuesday, 1 August. I will update all trades when I return on the 15th. This morning's GDP report seemed to cheer US stock and bond markets, raising expectations that the Fed is either done tightening, or very close to being done. It is an interesting sign that reports of a slowdown in growth combined with the highest core inflation rate since 1994 could have the positive reaction that it did. In other markets, Copper caught a late day bid resulting from nervousness ahead of the Escondida copper mine strike (the vote should be tallied by tonight, but the earliest a strike would happen would be Aug 7th). The grains didn't do much, but there were reports in the market about a widening problem in Florida with Asian Soybean Rust. Gold rallied, Silver was down on the day. Our TNR model was calling for a Trending day in ES, and that is what we saw. We put on one trade in the morning pop, and rode it all the way to our 4:00 exit. Monday we are looking for a Neutral day in both contracts. Today's TNR trade:
System B positions:
Good luck, and have a relaxing weekend! Let's see... we have Nigerian unrest in addition to the ongoing situation in the middle east combining to prop up crude today... Threats of a strike or walk-out in a south american copper mine helping out copper prices... continued good (growing) weather in the mid-west hitting soybean prices... and the normal uncertainty around the U.S. economy playing havoc with the dollar and U.S. equities.
Our TNR model was calling for a Trending day in ES and NQ, and we finally got what we were looking for. We hit quite a slump in July, but maybe this is the end of it. Tomorrow we are looking for another Trending day in ES, and Neutral in NQ. Today's TNR Trades:
System B positions:
Good luck, and have a great evening! Rains and promise of cooler weather in the midwest helped to deflate grain prices today. Also, hawkish comments coming out of Japan put the dollar into a bit of a tailspin, and bonds resumed their steady march upward. The precious metals rallied, but Copper couldn't keep up, closing below yesterday's mark. Try this or this.
Our TNR model wanted a trending day in NQ today, but it looked much more like a reversion day. Tomorrow we are looking for a Trending day in both ES and NQ. Today's TNR trades:
Today's TNR P/L: -$254 YTD TNR P/L: $5651 System B open positions:
Good luck, and have a great evening! Copper rallied and Crude had kind of a weak showing today. US Treasuries sold of today, but the dollar was strong across the board. Corn and Soybeans opened real strong, but gave almost all of the morning gains up by the close, while Wheat was weak all day. Lumber faded again. Not much of a real pattern in any of our markets right now, just a lot of give and take. Maybe its just those summer doldrums. Even the VIX is settling down to the levels we saw prior to the latest outbreak of mid-east hostilities.
Our TNR model was calling for a reversion day in ES, but the late day rally did us in again. We started the day with two money-makers, but wound up getting stopped out for a loss on the day. Tomorrow we are calling for a neutral day in ES and a Trending day in NQ. Today's TNR Trades:
Daily TNR P/L: -$546 YTD TNR P/L: $5905 Our open positions:
Good luck, and have a great evening! Crude started the day with a $73 handle and that got the equity market's juices flowing. No one wants to miss that countertrend rally when things settle down in the mideast, and with Condi's surprise visit to Beruit it looked like something was happening. We ended the day with Crude trading well above $75, but equities were able to sustain the rally, finishing the day quite strong.
Our TNR model was looking for a Trending day in NQ, but we reversed out of our long at the mid-day sell-off. When the rally started back up in earnest we were on the wrong side, and were stopped out with a money management stop. Tomorrow we are looking for a reversion day in ES and a neutral day in NQ. Today's TNR Trades:
Today's total P/L: -$384 YTD TNR Total P/L: $6451 Our open System B trades:
Good luck, and have a great evening! ![]() It was a pretty tough week for our models - Copper slid hard, the bonds rallied (not good for our short position) and even Cotton moved against us. On the plus side, our Lumber position continues to gain ground and our Soybean short moved decidedly in our favor today. The continued strength in Bonds have finally taken its toll. We covered our Five year note position (4 contracts) and our Ten year note position (2 contracts) today at the close. In addition, the continued grain weakness has us selling short 4 contracts of September Corn today at the close. All of these new positions will be reflected in Monday's reports. Our TNR model had another tough day, getting short first thing in the morning, and then reversing long, only to be whipsawed down and stopped out at 12:50. Today's trades:
Today's P/L: -$489 TNR YTD P/L : $6833 Our open positions:
Bonds up, dollar down - sounds like business as usual, but the equities and interest rate markets do seem to be decoupling a bit in here. Maybe there really is something to this idea of a slowing economy. The metals all were hit today, with copper fading in a fairly large way.
Our TNR model wound up making a very small amount on three trades. The reversion action worked well in the morning, but the afternoon swoon, with no reaction rallies, hurt us a bit. Tomorrow we are calling for a Trending day in ES and a neutral day in NQ. Today's trades:
Our open positions:
Good luck, and have a great evening! Today could easily wind up being an inflection point. Most of the interest rate sensitive sectors (bonds, equities, currencies) traced out substantial reversals after digesting Bernanke's remarks. Just looking at it in aggregate, it appears that the markets aren't taking Mr. Bernanke's inflation fighting credentials very seriously... If it was a staring contest between Bernanke and the market, Bernanke just blinked.
We added two new positions today amid all the turmoil - we sold 3 contracts of September Corn short at the close (again) and we sold 1 contract of Japanese Yen short at the close. Those positions will be reflected in tomorrow's reports. Our TNR model was in neutral in both contracts today. Tomorrow we are looking for a reversion day in both contracts. Our open positions:
Good luck, and have a great evening! We had some serious technical glitches today, so sorry for the late post...
Bonds continued to show weakness for the second straight day, with worries about Bernanke's testimony to congress continuing to dominate. Crude and Gold were hit pretty hard despite the ongoing military action in Lebanon. This could be a buy the rumor, sell the news type of event (the knee-jerk buying on fears of a widening of the conflict, and then selling once the news is fully discounted). Just a bit more weakness in Soybeans and in the Japanese Yen could get us short those two markets in here. Our TNR model had a bad day, with three losing trades out of three. We are looking at a neutral day in both contracts for Wednesday. Today's trades:
Our open positions:
Good luck and have a great evening! Today was something of a reversal of Friday's moves. Investors seem to think that events in the middle east, while still alarming, aren't spiraling out of control as was feared going into the weekend. Notable moves today include sell-offs in Gold and Crude. There was some material weakness in the grains today again, particularly in Soybeans. Our TNR model was calling for a Trending day today, and we didn't see that. Tomorrow we are looking for a Trending day in both contracts. Today's Trades:
Our open positions:
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