Bloomberg is reporting Iraq Safer Than Ohio Banks Stung by Credit Crisis . Iraq's bonds are delivering the biggest returns in emerging markets as oil export revenue bolsters government finances and violence declines. The country's $2.7 billion of 5.8 percent bonds due 2028 gained 45 percent since August 2007, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes. Investors demand 4.84 percentage points more in yield to own the debt instead of Treasuries, down from 7.26 percentage points a year ago. The spread is narrower than for notes of Ohio banks National City Corp. and KeyCorp, suggesting Baghdad may be safer for bond investors than Cleveland.

The UltraShort QQQQ ETF (AMEX: QID) has hurdled Tuesday's recovery high at 42.32 (as the Q's broke below Tuesday's low at 46.12), which my pattern and momentum work argues is the initial confirmation of the start of a new upleg in the QIDs (downleg in the Q's). Next near-term target for the QIDs is 43.00/20.

You know there is something wrong when financial commentators are forced into being weathermen. During the better part of this new century, we have dealt with tightness in oil supplies and dire warnings of woe that would befall us should a hurricane get loose in the Gulf of Mexico . During this same period, we have been bombarded by higher costs across the full spectrum of items that are considered to be staples of living the in United States . Yet officials and media pundits have stubbornly insisted that inflation is ‘contained' or recently that it ‘will cool next year'.

Part I, "...The 'total war' of the 20th century first required a 'total war' on freely held private wealth..." IT SEEMS AN ODD QUIRK of history that Washington 's post-War obsession with its nationalized gold reserves – an obsession which Ian Fleming neatly tapped into with Goldfinger in 1959 – came so long after what historians call the "classical" Gold Standard ended.

As the precious metals summer doldrums come to a close, we need to assess the damage from another season of gold hatred and disdain. Like déjà vu for veteran gold investors, the mainstream financial media took advantage of gold's seasonal weakness to proclaim the death of the Ancient Metal of Kings. From a technical perspective gold's summer activity indeed gave the naysayers fodder to jump on the “End of the Gold Bull!” and “Gold's Bubble has Burst!” bandwagons. Gold's $190 plunge from mid-July to mid-August saw it knife through a number of key support levels. This caused blood to flow in the streets even for the gold faithful.

As the pendulum swings between greed and fear, investors typically become over-enthusiastic during bull markets and over-despondent as the bear's growl grows louder. It stands to reason that in order to be a successful investor, it is important to distance yourself from the herd mentality and to take objective decisions based on fundamental reasons.

Once again, real estate market watchers have pounced on a shred of seemingly positive news to proclaim that the long sought “bottom” is in sight. The routine is becoming extremely stale, but somehow the media never seems to tire of it. This time the “good” news was that the percentage declines in national home prices (according to Case Shiller) in July where not as large as they were in June. Although the report contained many other negative data points, including increased inventories and a spike in foreclosure sales, it was the slowing declines that got spotlight. Talk about grasping at straws.

THE PRICE OF GOLD reversed an earlier 1% drop as the Wall Street opening approached on Friday, touching $838 an ounce as Asian stock markets ended the month 3% lower and government bond prices rose. Up $15 from last Friday, gold prices were heading for their second week-on-week gain. But they remained at an 8% discount to the close of July.

While Thursday's gains in stocks appear to be impressive, they do little in terms of making an impact on longer-term trends. We do not need any complicated technical indicators to discern the long-term trends on the following charts. Thursday's rally in stocks cannot even be seen on the six-year chart of the S&P 500 Index below.

Gold has flat lined and is marginally higher this morning with the dollar marginally lower and oil marginally higher on continuing concerns about the possible impact of tropical storm Gustav. Gold has been gradually edging higher for the last two weeks and appears to be ready to rally in the seasonally strong autumn months due to the strong fundamentals. Especially given deepening concerns regarding the global economy, heightened geopolitical risk on increasing tensions in Russia and the continuing supply demand issues in the physical bullion market.

Here is an interesting theory stipulating that foreign central banks are behind the rally in treasuries and that in turn is causing a rally in the dollar. Please consider Foreign Central Banks Behind Rally In US Treasuries . The huge amount of US Treasury purchases which has sent that chart nearly vertical helps to explain the continued rally in the US Dollar. It is a near certainty that something has been transpiring behind the scenes involving various Central Banks in regards to the US Dollar.

I am fascinated to watch the Olympic Games. Athletes from all over the world come together and compete with each other. As you might have noticed, sometimes the winner surprises everyone. It is not the one who is most talented or most favored… I was watching women's gymnastics. The two top teams were China and the U.S. After the 4th rotation, it seemed that the U.S. would win the gold medal.

In recent posts I have taken a look at various conspiracy theories on the rise of the dollar, the shortage of silver, and the manipulation of gold. Here is a synopsis. (Warning, some of these are very lengthy) I discussed US dollar manipulation claims in

My hourly pattern work is starting to warn me that the Q's (Nasdaq: QQQQ) are nearing the completion of its 3-session recovery rally. Where is the peak? I come up with a target window of 47.19 to 47.57, both of which are located beneath the prior significant recovery rally peak at 47.68 (8/22). As long as 47.68 remains a viable prior high, I will consider the action off of the 46.12 low (8/26) as a countertrend move ahead of the next downleg and within the dominant bear trend. A decline beneath 46.95 will begin to compromise the current rally effort.

The markets have been extremely volatile over the past few weeks. Investors have been spooked and many are wondering what to do, if anything. For now, based on our analysis, gold's bull market remains in force. That's the bottom line. Even though there have been some wild swings, the major trend is still up and as long as that's the case, we recommend holding your positions.

(USAGOLD) CHINA -- Peter Grant writes: It's been slightly more than three years since China freed the yuan from its peg to the dollar. From the early 1990s until July of 2005, the USD-CNY exchange rate was fixed at 8.27, giving China a distinct and consistent advantage when it came to international trade. The US was, and continues to be, the major consumer of goods manufactured in China. The artificially weak yuan resulted in the US trade deficit ballooning, while China amassed a monster trade surplus and considerable dollar reserves. In the years leading up to the float of the yuan, China was under considerable political pressure from the west.

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: During a two-year stretch every 20 years or so, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index can be expected to lose 35% or more of its value. In 1974, according to research by Ibbotson Associates, that truism manifested itself as a 37.25% downdraft. It was even worse in 2002, when investors received a 41.65% haircut.

The amount of hate email I have been receiving in response to The Great Gold, Silver Conspiracy Explained is large but not unsurprising. People simply want to blame others for their own trading mistakes. I will have more on that in a separate post. Most of the emails I received are unprintable because of the profanity. However I will print one of them anyway with slight edits. I will voluntarily withhold the name of the person writing although no such request was asked.

Summer brings with it rumors of attacks on the U.S. homeland. Currently, we are hearing unconfirmed word of plans in place for jihadists to be dispatched from Pakistan to conduct coordinated suicide attacks against soft targets in as many as 10 U.S. cities. This year, the rumors seem to be emerging a little later and with a little less fanfare than last year, when we saw a number of highly publicized warnings, such as that from Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff and a National Intelligence Estimate saying al Qaeda was gaining strength. Last year also brought warnings from a former Israeli counterterrorism official that al Qaeda was planning a simultaneous attack against five to seven American cities, and of a dirty bomb attack against New York.

Arguably, gold shares are leveraged to the gold price. Arguably, the markets look ahead. If these two propositions are true, then the direction of movement of gold share prices should be pointing the way to the future direction of gold price movements. The chart below (courtesy stockcharts.com) reflects a fairly serious breakdown of the relative strength chart of gold shares vs the gold price

THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD BULLION rose yet again in London on Thursday, touching $840 an ounce just ahead of the Wall Street open and recovering almost one-third of the 21% plunge witnessed since mid-July. " Gold is still capped by the big resistance at $846," reckons Peter Tse at Scotia Mocatta in Hong Kong , speaking earlier to Reuters.

Dollar weakness, firm oil and continuing tension in the Caucasus are leading to gold remaining well bid this morning. Warnings from Nato to Russia to stay out of Ukraine and calls for the European Union to be ready for “hard headed engagement” with Moscow are not doing much to help confidence in already nervous markets.

Gold and silver prices have crashed. Ted Butler, Rob Kirby, James Conrad and others are all blaming manipulation. Let's take a look at those manipulation theories starting with Ted Butler. Lessons of a Lifetime Here are a few excerpts from Ted Butler's Lessons of a Lifetime . The drastic sell-off in silver (and gold) is further proof of an ongoing manipulation to the downside.

Purely from a technical perspective, U.S. Natural Gas Fund (AMEX: UNG) weakness after its pre-open high at 41.00 to 38.91 represents a "gap-filling" expedition"' -- at least, so far. The fact that selling pressure filled the entire up-gap this morning and then buyers re-emerged to push up prices to 39.62, as we speak, warns us that the action is a correction within an underlying advance off of Monday's low at 35.67. As of this moment, the UNG pattern remains constructive within the overriding bullish potential indicated by hurricane Gustav.

Delusional seems to be mental state of investment community as September approaches. Nonsensical talk of U.S. dollar having put in place a secular, or long-term, bottom is widespread. That EU economic growth rate might slow somewhat is interesting, but may be no more than statistical noise. That growth rate of Chinese economy might slow from “11+%” to “9%” is interesting, but is hardly a “dramatic” slowing.