Everyone has to try Joe's Stone Crabs at least once!  Joe's is located in South Beach (actually SoFi) at 11 Washington Avenue - Miami Beach, FL 33139 and their number is 305.673.0365  (make sure you call them to find out if they are in season).

Joe's is definitely .....another MIAMISM!!

** Summer is here! time to take out the camera and shoot some cool Miamisms - if you are technically inclined - you can add them to the Miamism Group at Flickr.com - or you can e-mail the photos directly to us at info@miamism.com **

You hear it so much that it's ingrained in your brain - when selling Miami Real Estate, go neutral - but why? 

People say I have a gift for color, my mom remembers me as a little girl painting color charts and experimenting with color hues and values instead of drawing stick figures.  I did a lot of color consulting in my architectural business before going into real estate (and now offer that service to our clients).  So let me tell you a little about color.

As in Real Estate, there are emotions associated with color - our senses are heightened and we react to certain hues and certain feelings come out with certain colors.  Unfortunately, we cannot generalize that red will make you angry, blue will sooth you and yellow will make you indecisive.  The psychology of color is a lot more complicated than that and different colors affect different people in different and unpredictable ways.

Just yesterday, I was asked to visit some dear friends' home to help them with color.  This is a married couple who are very compatible and at the same time very different.  While one of them wanted blue, the other one felt blue made them uncomfortable.  I'm not going to go into details about the colors that were finally chosen, but the whole point of this is that as a Miami Real Estate Seller, you have the ability to control certain aspects of how people will feel when they walk into your home.

When you are competing against so many other properties for sale, wouldn't it make sense for you to try to make that first visit as pleasant as possible, without instilling feelings that are out of your control?  That's the reason for neutral.

Keeping colors in the off-whites and light beige color scheme is not only the best way to feature elements within a property, but the best way for people to be unbiased when viewing your Miami home for sale.

Mortgage rates for July 22, 2008.  Loan amounts up to $417,000:

3/1 ARM              5.750%

5/1 ARM              5.875%

7/1 ARM              6.250%

10/1 ARM            6.500%

30 Yr Fixed          6.500%

All rates offered to the borrower with 1 point cost.  Rate quotes assume a purchase transaction with a 20% down payment, 720 credit score, and full income qualification.  Rates are subject to fluctuation.  Custom rate quotes and rate lock advice are available by calling (858)-777-9751.

MORTGAGE RATE TREND:

Next 7 days:      Slightly Lower

Next 30 days:     Lower

Next 3 months:   Neutral

What a difference a week makes, huh?  Last Tuesday, I signaled that a short-term increase in rates was likely when I changed the 7-day outlook to "slightly higher" from neutral.  I felt that the rally in mortgage bonds was overdone and that traders would sell off a bit; I had no idea it would be this drastic.

If you click the link, you'll see that I offered a 30-year fixed at 6.0%. last Tuesday- today, the 30-year fixed rate loan is a full .5% higher.  In fact, almost every loan program is .5% higher than it was last week.  The problem?  Wall Street thinks the worst is over for banks and that inflation is going to be the #1 target for the Fed in the next few months.  ' Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is certainly telling the markets that the banking crisis should be averted by Christmas.

So will the Fed raise interest rates in 2008?  I'm not so certain that they will.  The housing decline has been the worst since The Great Depression.  Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, is an expert on monetary policy in the Depression.  He subscribes to the Milton Friedman theory that monetary policy must accommodate a healthy banking system.  His 2004 speech signaled two things two us:

(1)- Bernanke believes that tightening during a slowdown could cause further economic declines:

According to Friedman and Schwartz, the Fed's tight-money policies led to the onset of a recession in August 1929, according to the official dating by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The slowdown in economic activity, together with high interest rates, was in all likelihood the most important source of the stock market crash that followed in October. In other words, the market crash, rather than being the cause of the Depression, as popular legend has it, was in fact largely the result of an economic slowdown and the inappropriate monetary policies that preceded it. Of course, the stock market crash only worsened the economic situation, hurting consumer and business confidence and contributing to a still deeper downturn in 1930.

 

(2) Bernanke believes that a contracting banking sector withdraws a HUGE amount of money out of the economy:

The banking crisis had highly detrimental effects on the broader economy. Friedman and Schwartz emphasized the effects of bank failures on the money supply. Because bank deposits are a form of money, the closing of many banks greatly exacerbated the decline in the money supply. Moreover, afraid to leave their funds in banks, people hoarded cash, for example by burying their savings in coffee cans in the back yard. Hoarding effectively removed money from circulation, adding further to the deflationary pressures. Moreover, as I emphasized in early research of my own (Bernanke, 1983), the virtual shutting down of the U.S. banking system also deprived the economy of an important source of credit and other services normally provided by banks

 

His conclusion is foreshadowing:

Some important lessons emerge from the story. One lesson is that ideas are critical. The gold standard orthodoxy, the adherence of some Federal Reserve policymakers to the liquidationist thesis, and the incorrect view that low nominal interest rates necessarily signaled monetary ease, all led policymakers astray, with disastrous consequences. We should not underestimate the need for careful research and analysis in guiding policy. Another lesson is that central banks and other governmental agencies have an important responsibility to maintain financial stability. The banking crises of the 1930s, both in the United States and abroad, were a significant source of output declines, both through their effects on money supplies and on credit supplies. Finally, perhaps the most important lesson of all is that price stability should be a key objective of monetary policy. By allowing persistent declines in the money supply and in the price level, the Federal Reserve of the late 1920s and 1930s greatly destabilized the U.S. economy and, through the workings of the gold standard, the economies of many other nations as well.

 

I don't see the Fed aggressively raising interest rates to prop up the dollar.  I think reduced demand will bring oil prices below the $100/barrel mark which will strengthen the dollar.  The Fed's focus should have been (in the 1930s) and will be (this decade) to promote a healthy banking system.    While the banks are reporting lower losses, they still aren't healthy. The recent good news from the banking sector needs to be sustainable.  Look for the Fed to restrain itself from raising rates until 2009.

Are higher mortgage rates on the horizon?  Sure, in 2009.  The run up in mortgage rates I predicted, two weeks ago, has already happened.  I don't think mortgage rates go much higher in 2008.

Some people refer to the area around The Arsht Center for Performing Arts, formerly known as Carnival Center for Performing Arts as "Miami's Performing Arts District" (somehow the whole name change makes me think of Prince). It is full of antagonisms and controversy because the Performing Arts Center has not, excuse the pun, "performed" as originally planned. The concept was to give Miami what it was missing, the performing arts and theater culture that major cities have. There were amazing projects built all around and the area has boomed....but maybe not at the pace everyone hoped.

Real Estate was to follow the lead of the multi-million dollar project, especially because the city was dumping a lot of cash into the re-design of the area - from pedestrian friendly streets to public places. And so it happened, beautiful Miami Luxury condos around the Arsht Center for Performing Arts were constructed with amazing views of the city of Miami as well as the Bay and Port of Miami together with best amenities. These are not only centrally located, but are close to shopping and withing walking distance to everything you need and a stone throw away from Downtown Miami.

The Arsht Center for The Performing Arts

The Arsht Center for the Performing Arts is a complex of multi-purpose state-of-the-art performance halls . Designed by Cesar Pelli and Associates, it is the focal point of performing arts activity in South Florida and serves as a showcase for the finest established and developing cultural programs.

Located on Biscayne Boulevard between NE 13th and 14th streets, the Arsht Center for the Performing Arts consists of three performance facilities which are linked by a pedestrian bridge spanning the Boulevard. The Center's performance halls include a concert hall designed for concerts of classical and popular music and a ballet opera house, capable of accommodating the grand sets and scenery employed in major theatrical productions. The complex also houses a theater for small-scale theater and dance presentations. The center's auditoria, banquet facilities, plaza and other public areas are intended to accommodate a range of civic and social events.

The economic impact up and down Biscayne Boulevard, from Overtown to Biscayne Bay, is obvious and new Miami downtown condominium projects make their proximity to the Miami Arts District a major selling point.

This is an old photo before many of the condos South of the Center were built, but gives a great perspective of the city.

Wynwood Luxury Condos or Miami Arts DistrictRead more »

The Travel Channel voted South Beach number 1 beach in Florida! While flipping channels the other day while watching TV (yes...I'm one of those), I came upon one of the Travel Channel's "best of" and it was Florida's Top 10 Beaches.

For those of you that don't know me.....I LOVE a beach and if you give me a choice to go to an exotic vacation or a beautiful beach, the beach will win every time! I was very surprised after seeing the top 10 list, that I didn't know a lot of those beaches.....so maybe I'll have to do some investigative trips to find out if what the Travel Channel says is true <what a great excuse, no?>

So here's the list:

Florida's Best Beaches

(according to the Travel Channel)

1. South Beach ("tourist hot spot")

2. Siesta Key Beach ("soft sand")

3. Palm Beach ("to experience the high life")

4. Lovers Key Beach ("perfect for couples")

5. Clearwater Beach ("boater's paradise")

6. Smathers Beach ("Key West charm")

7. Sanspur Beach ("for nature lovers")

8. Panama City Beach ("spring breakers heaven")

9. Sanibel Beach ("seashells gallore")

10. Daytona Beach ("named best beach by known 'beachologists' ")

Since we live in Miami, it's easy for me to give you my personal scoop about South Beach, because we do frequent those beaches. This is what you have to understand: it's not all about South Beach Real Estate - it's not all about the Hottest SoFi Condo......but it IS all about the South Beach Lifestyle!Read more »