Road teams love Bill Kennedy this year

Sorry guys, but I don't have a lot to report this week but still wanted to get you the updated numbers through Wednesday's games.  I've looked at playing sides more over the last week without too much success and should have incorporated some anti-homer refs into my picks (see below).

The top trends right now seem to be betting against home teams with Tony Brown or Bill Kennedy calling their games, as the road teams are a combined 15-2 ATS in that situation.  I'll be looking more closely at these on Friday with the big schedule and return with a free play

Remember you can always find the daily referee assignments by clicking here.

NBA Referee Report Based on HOMER Results

No, this isn't the real Vegas Prop King

This came up on the Forums recently, as I believe it was DenverMoney who asked what type of information people look at before betting props.  I'd like to start this conversation by saying I have struggled with props lately but have certainly enjoyed success in the past as most of you know.  I have discovered that the bigger the game, the easier it is to win when betting on a particular player's performance.  That might explain why I have excelled during the playoffs and had a tougher time during the regular season.

In the NBA, I generally look at home/road statistical splits for players along with how they have performed against their opponent during their career.  It's also important not to weigh the career numbers too heavily since the Boston Celtics were obviously not the same team a couple years ago before Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett got there.

Of course NFL games get increasingly important as the season goes on, with prime-time games on Sunday and Monday nights (and now Thursday) definitely the featured events.   But certain players get up for these types of games more than others while others clearly struggle (i.e. Bills QB Trent Edwards against the Browns). 

Football props can be handicapped similar to the games themselves, by studying each team's game plan and how they are going to attack the opposition.  If a top passing team is going up against the worst secondary in the league, you can pretty much assume there will be a lot of passing yards involved.  The lines will generally reflect that situation, but what I do beforehand is make the line myself on the player and then judge whether or not there is any value on the OVER or UNDER with the real numbers.

Stats are the biggest factor for me when betting props and really the only thing I look at.  One of the best props I have ever seen posted on the Forums came from Jeff Bonds a couple years ago and involved former Ohio State QB Troy Smith going OVER 16 pass completions.  Smith completed nine passes on the first drive, and Bonds cashed this prop by halftime.  I watched this game with him at Green Valley Ranch, and there's nothing quite like knowing you can enjoy the rest of the game following an easy winner.

Since I'm an action junkie and simply love having money riding on something in virtually every big TV game, I have found prop bets to be a very fun way to add to my passion of watching sports.  No matter whether I'm hot or cold with my other bets, I always seem to be cashing some type of ticket and getting money back in my pocket somehow.

> Get Matty's Triple Dime NCAA Game O' the Year at Pregame Pros!

FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY  (57% lifetime...Past 13 years)
 
Ball State @ Butler 7:00 PM EST
Play On: (#523) 3* Ball State +15

Bulldogs are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Not much trend study backing us in this game as Butler has pretty much owned Ball State. A lot of points in this one though. My three sets of power ratings have Butler winning by only 6.26, 7.38 and 9.71. We'll play Ball State for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Rocky went 5-2 71% last night with all picks.  Rocky is back with seven plays for Wednesday including a TOP 4* NBA play, two 3* NBA plays, 3* NHL play and three 3* CBB plays.  Rocky went 72-36 67% last year in CBB which was good enough for #1 in the nation.  Rocky is documented #1 in the nation this year in the NHL making his clients right at $70,000 already this year!  Rocky has won 11 of 12 years in the NBA regular season.  Let's roll again here tonight!  Check us out long term at Pregamepros.com!

By The King Maker

We all know that proper money management and a decent winning percentage are all you need to survive in the world of gambling. Anyone that can manage their impulses and stick to a conservative plan will do well in a business that preys on the multiple faults of its practitioners. The foundation of the gaming industry was fostered within the fractured psyche of of the world's most unprofessional, deluded, intoxicated, and irresponsible client bases. And it continues every year with no change.

We can't halt process of personal decline, failure, and rage, but maybe we can put a dent in the woes of gambling in the early weeks of a given season.

Have you heard of "Paper Trading"?

Paper trading is placing wagers without putting any money at risk; in other words, "on paper". When a gambler "paper trades", he is simulating real life gambling by performing every task that leads up to the actual transmission of money. He follows his normal processes, and posts the wager by making it known to his spouce, friend, or forum, then he watches the results and grades his performance the same way that he would grade his actual accounts.

I aggressively "paper trade" at the beginning of every season. This is why you see very few plays from me in the first few weeks of a given season, and it's why you'll see many professionals limiting their wagers in the early stages of any sport.

In the age of free agency, early departures to the professional ranks, and overlapping sporting seasons, there are too many alternating variables to deal with. Many of you will notice that your winning percentages rise, significantly, as the season progresses, and the reasons for this are obvious.  You have more data, more film, more of a sense of the speed of each wager, and you have loads of analysis from other sources that have learned as much as you have during the season.

How many of you have been forced to dig yourself out of a hole due to early season losses? How many of you have had to "re-load" your accounts by week 4? Most people won't answer those questions, but the phenomenon certainly exists, and repeats itself every season.

Everyone can paper trade! 

Would you consider "paper trading" your wagers in the early weeks of each season? This doesn't mean that you shouldn't gamble each day, but could you consider pulling money back from the window, and play 70% of your early action on paper? Clearly, some of you are superior handicappers, so my suggestion may not have any weight, but I know that 80% of the viewers out there are not 20 year gamblers, and I know that the guys that have been at this for 20-plus years are "paper traders" in their own right. They call it something different in each circle. It's called "conservatism", "common sense", "risk management", and "the path of the unafflicted", but it's "paper trading" none-the-less.

As a secondary note:  You know you're not addicted if you can pull wagers back and "paper trade". You know that you're not in it for short-term euphoria if you "paper trade". You know that you can manage your money if you "paper trade".

I have saved thousands of dollars by sitting back and watching the early weeks go by. As a professional handicapper, I may lose clients by sitting back and waiting for the dust to settle, but it's been one of the reasons why I've stayed afloat for so many years. It took a decade to realize it, but somewhere in my late 20's I realized that I didn't know everything; and now, at 39 years of age, I feel as if I've protected myself against myself.

It's better to TEST the market. Paper trading is the best way to do it. Every professional stock trader does it. Every professional handicapper does it. All industries support the concept of TESTING the process, so why can't we.

Whether you like it or not, your gambling assets should be protected by proper testing practices. Paper trading or outright restraint are the best way to accomplish the task.

Just my opinion, boys.

Good luck today!

Kevin

The 2008 CFL Grey Cup

By CFL Handicapper Ron Raymond

November, 18^th 2008

The 96^th edition of the CFL Grey Cup will be hosted in Montreal, Quebec Canada and the betting line on the game is Montreal PK vs. Calgary (57.0).

The Montreal Alouettes (12-7) will represent the Eastern Division, while the Calgary Stampeders (14-5) will represent the Western Division. The Alouettes won 36-26 in the Eastern Division final last weekend, as they beat the Edmonton Eskimos who won against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the Semi Finals the week prior.

In the Western Division finals, the Stampeders outlasted the BC Lions 22-18 as a -5.5 point Home Favorite and the Lions beat the Saskatchewan Roughriders 33-12 at Mosaaic Stadium in the Western Semi Finals.

Both the Alouettes and Stampeders finished first in their division this season and CFL fans are getting a marquee final this Sunday, November 23^rd at 6; 00 pm EST at Olympic Stadium, home of the 1976 Olympics.

The Montreal Alouettes are led by former Utah State Aggies QB Anthony Calvillo who was also the starting QB of the now defunct CFL team Las Vegas Posse. Calvillo's favorite receiver is Ben Cahoon who went to BYU and is an 8 time all star receiver in the CFL. The Stamps are led QB Henri Burris who had a cup of coffee in the NFL with the Packers and Bears and played his college ball with Temple University and finished with 20 passing records at that university. It should be noted; Burris started his pro career in the CFL before attending the Bears in the NFL. As for the Stampeders running game, they have a work horse in Jofferey Reynolds at the tail back position and Burris has great receivers to choose from when he's glancing down the field.

The Stampeders are probably the better balanced team offensively and defensively, as the Stamps average 32.47 Points For per game, while averaging 23.05 Points Against per game. However, Montreal are no doubt, the most explosive team offensively in the CFL, as they've scored 30 or more points in 16 out of 19 games this season and it could have been 17 out of 19 games if they would have played their regulars in their season finale vs. Edmonton.

The Stamps enter this game with the momentum and it reflects in the opening numbers, as the Bookmakers have made this game a Pick'em and considering this is like a Home game for Montreal, makes it a head scratcher from a betting perspective.

Let's review; the Stampeders have won 5 in a row, 9 out of their last 10 games and they've covered 80% of their last 10 games. Here's an interesting number, had the bookmaker made the Alouettes a Grey Cup Favorite, the Stamps are 6-0 SU and ATS as an underdog this season, so monitor this line throughout the week. However, if the money starts coming in on Calgary and the Stamps start getting some Favorite love, the Als are 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS this season.

Montreal have not done well in the Grey Cup Final the last 8 years; as they've been involved in 5 Grey Cup games since 2000, but have only won the big game once, 34-22 vs. the Eskimos in Edmonton. The Stampeders on the other hand have made the big dance 3 times since 1996 and have won the Grey Cup two out of the three times. In fact, there only lost was in 1999 as a -5.5 point favorite vs. Hamilton, as the Tiger Cats won the game 32-21 in a game played at BC Place.

The Stampeders own the season series, as they've won both games vs. Montreal. In the first meeting on July 10^th (week #3), the Alouettes were a -4.5 point Home Favorite and the game finished 23-19 for the Stamps and the O/U on the game 55 and it clearly went UNDER the posted total. In the rematch, the Alouettes were a +3.0 point Road Underdog in Week #12 and fell 41-30 and the O/U on that game was set at 58.5.

The Alouettes are 6-4 (SU and ATS) in their last 10 overall head to head meetings with the Calgary Stampeders and the OVER is 7-3-0 in those 10 meetings.

Here's a GREY CUP pointspread and result history of the last 12 Grey Cups played.

Well, there you have it, another season is coming to an end and if you're interested in receiving my CFL Grey Cup pick on this game, you can get it in the members area this week, as I will be releasing a side and totals play on the Big game.

Enjoy the Grey Cup Folks!

The last game of the season can be meaningful for college football teams in need of respect. From a handicapping perspective, this especially holds true when our squad that is about to check out meets these 'value laden' criteria:

a) they must have won 2 or fewer games last season
b) they are on the road, without rest, in their season finale
c) they own a win percentage of .200 > this season
d) their opponent's win percentage is .444 < this season

By combining all the factors above our ?see ya later? sad sacks are a nifty 36-21-1 ATS since 1980. There are two qualifying ?Sayonara? teams on this season?s schedule: UNLV this week and UAB next Saturday.

By simply going up against a foe that allows 27.5 > PPG, and making sure we allow < 34 PPG, we improve our numbers to 19-7-1 ATS. And by making sure our opponent did not win two games ago by 10 or more points, we ratchet our record up to 19-4-1 ATS. UNLV qualifies this week.

While neither the Rebels nor the Blazers will be bowling this season, this year?s teams certainly improved leaps and bounds over last year?s editions. A season-ending pointspread win would be the Saki-making statement to that effect!

 > Get Marc's 7 Day All Access Football Pass at Pregame Pros!

 
2008 Heisman Trophy Top 10 Update after Week 12

By Larry Ness
Pregame Pros Handicapper

2) SAM BRADFORD (Oklahoma) Last Week: 2. Talk about 'splitting hairs.' It's difficult to chose between Harrell, Bradford and McCoy. In the end it may come down to personal preference for the voters. Does one prefer blondes, brunettes or red-heads. Bradford had a terrific freshman year in 2007, throwing for 3,121 yards (69.5 percent completions) with 36 TDs and eight INTs. His 36 TD passes were a new NCAA freshman single-season record and his QB rating of 176.52 led the nation. His current QB rating of 188.9, which is higher than last year's mark, currently puts him second in the nation. On top of that, he's already surpassed last year's TD pass (38) and passing yards ( 3,406) totals with at least three games left to his 2008 season. Oklahoma is the nation's No. 1 scoring team (51.4 PPG) and has scored 50-plus points in six games this season (the only Oklahoma team with more 50-point games was the 2003 squad, with seven 50-point games). Bradford completed 22-of-33 passes for 320 yards and four TDs (to four different receivers!) in his last game (a 66-28 win at Texas A&M) without an interception, plus added a rushing TD. Bradford now has eight 300-yard passing games this season, tying the single-season school record set by Josh Heupel in 1999 and 10 in his career (two have been 400-plus games). His 22 completions now give him an Oklahoma-record 461 for his career. Oklahoma and Bradford lost their showdown on October 11 to Texas and McCoy but get a 'second chance' this Saturday when Texas Tech and Harrell visit Norman. Oklahoma has won 23 straight home games (14-7-1 ATS), which is the longest active home winning streak in CFB. The Sooners have also won 43 of their last 44 home games and are 59-2 SU at home under Bob Stoops. Neither Oklahoma nor Bradford can afford a loss to Texas Tech if the Sooners are to have a chance at the BCS title game and Bradford at the Heisman. As I mentioned in the above write-up, Bradford was knocked out of last year's game early on. "Game on" this Saturday at 8:00 ET! Bradford's season stats are: 224-of-330 (67.9 percent) for 3,406 yards with 38 TDs and 6 INTs / QB rating of 188.9 ranks him No. 2 / 4 rush TDs.

3) COLT MCCOY (Texas) Last Week: 3. McCoy bested Bradford in the Texas/Oklahoma game on October and 11 and if he and the Longhorns came within a dropped interception by Texas freshman safety Blake Gideon of besting Tech and Harrell on November 1. However, Gideon did drop what would have been a game-ending interception on a tipped ball and one play later, Harrell threw that famous TD pass to Crabtree. Remember my line about splitting hairs? I'll keep McCoy at the No. 3 spot but the final three weekends promise plenty of drama. While both Harrell and Bradford were resting this past Saturday, McCoy led Texas past Kansas 35-7. The Longhorns moved to 10-1, claiming their eighth straight 10-win season, which ties them with Miami (1985-92) for the second-longest streak of all-time. The Longhorns also own at least nine wins for 11 straight seasons, the longest active streak in the nation. Colt McCoy was 24-for-34 for 255 yards and two TDs (no INTs). It was his 15th straight game with at least one TD pass. McCoy's two TD passes raised his season total to 30, breaking his own school record set in his freshman year (2006). He's now 30-7 as a starter, tying Vince Young for the most wins as a Texas quarterback. McCoy passed Vince Young for first place on Texas' all-time list of TDs responsible for (passing, rushing, receiving) a month ago and with his two TDs and one rushing (ran for 78 yards on 16 carries vs the Jayhawks), his career mark is now up to 95 (Young had 81 and former Heisman-winner Ricky Williams had 76). McCoy's completing nearly 80 percent of his passes on the year, his QB rating of 177.6 ranks 4th and he is still the team's leader in rushing yards for the season with 527. That's a pretty good resume for the QB of the nation's 4th-ranked team in the AP and 3rd in the current BCS standings. While Texas Tech and Oklahoma battle in Norman this coming Saturday night, the Longhorns are off until Thanksgiving, when they host Texas A&M. His season stats are: 268-of-347 (77.2 percent) for 3.134 yards with 30 TDs and 7 INTs / QB rating of 177.6 is 4th in the nation / 117 carries for 527 yards (4.5 YPC) and 8 TDs.

4) TIM TEBOW (Florida) Last Week: 4. No one expected Tebow to match his terrific numbers from last year (3,286 yards passing with 32 TDs / 895 yards rushing with 23 TDs) but he really put himself in a pretty big 'hole' the first four games of '08. The Gators suffered a devastating 31-30 loss at home to Ole Miss (Florida missed an extra-point) on September 27 and while Tebow had a season-high 319 yards passing in that game plus two rushing TDs, he had thrown for just six TDs and rushed for only 125 yards (2.6 YPC) over Florida's first four games. With this year's great contingent of prolific Big 12 QBs, those kind of numbers were not going to cut it. However, Tebow has been quite impressive since that loss to Ole Miss, leading the Gators to six straight wins, by the combined scores of 299-63. The streak includes a 51-21 win over LSU (last year's national champs) and 49-10 over Georgia (the nation's preseason No. 1 team). Tebow led the Gators to a dominating 56-6 win over South Carolina this past Saturday, completing 13-of-20 passes for 173 yards with two TDs and no INTs. He ran for 39 yards (14 carries), while adding another rushing TD. He broke Emmitt Smith's school record of 36 rushing TDs against Georgia and his career total is now up to 42. Florida is guaranteed a spot in the SEC title game, where the Gators will meet current No. 1, Alabama. Florida is currently No. 3 in the AP poll and 4th in the BCS standings. If both Alabama and Florida can stay perfect the rest of the way, it's likely that SEC championship game on December 6, will give the winner a spot in the BCS title game. Tebow's slow start is too much to overcome this year in the Heisman race but Florida's overall play has many thinking the Gators are now CFB's best team. Tebow's thrown 13 TDs (just two INTs) and added nine more TDs on the ground over the last six games but those Big 12 QBs just had too much of a head start. The Gators host The Citadel this Saturday, so Tebow will have little chance to impress anyone. His season stats are: 139-of-214 (65.0 percent) for 1,913 yards with 19 TDs and 2 INTs / QB rating of 167.5 ranks 9th / 119 carries for 393 yards (3.3 YPC) 11 TDs.

5) MICHAEL CRABTREE (Texas Tech) Last Week: 5. I had Crabtree No. 9 in my preseason poll, along with fellow WRs Percy Harvin (Florida) and Jeremy Maclin (Missouri) but while Maclin's been a poll-regular for me due to his versatility, I didn't put Crabtree into my top-10 until November 3 (at the No. 5 spot). As the saying goes, better late than never. Crabtree caught an amazing 134 passes last year as a freshman, leading the nation in both receiving yards (1,962) and TD receptions (22), as well. In the process, he became the first freshman to win the Biletnikoff award as the nation's best receiver. Crabtree had eight catches with three going for TDs in Tech's romp over Oklahoma State on 11/8. That performance extended his streak of recording at least five receptions and a touchdown catch to 13 consecutive games, matching Randy Moss and leaving him one game shy of Pitt's Larry Fitzgerald, who had a 14-game streak for the Panthers from 2002-03. Crabtree had a modest 89 receiving yards in the game but has topped 100 yards in 15 of his 23 career games, while catching an amazing total of 40 TDs. Tech visits Oklahoma this Saturday in a game which has some fairly important implications. Crabtree's season stats are: 78 catches for 1,010 yards (12.9 YPC) with 18 TDs.

6) JEREMY MACLIN (Missouri) Last Week: 6. It's hard to argue against the fact that Crabtree is the nation's best receiver but Maclin isn't too far behind and he's a better all-around performer. Maclin caught eight passes for 103 yards and one TD in Missouri's 52- 20 win at Iowa State this past Saturday. It was his sixth 100-yard receiving game this year and the ninth of his career. He added eight rushing yards and 111 more yards on four kickoff returns. Maclin has 79 receptions for 1,052 yards (13.3 YPC) with 10 TDs. He's added 198 rushing (6.4 YPC) with two more TDs. Throw in 188 yards on punt returns plus 769 more on kickoff returns and his 200.6 YPG ranks him first in all-purpose yards nationally. Missouri is off next week and closes vs Kansas in Kansas City on November 29.

7) CHASE DANIEL (Missouri) Last Week: 7. Daniel was my early favorite for this award but Missouri's back-to-back losses to Oklahoma State and Texas did him (as have the performances of fellow Big 12 QBs Harrell, Bradford and McCoy). Daniel has completed 76.5 percent for 3,592 yards with 30 TDs and 11 INTs (his QB rating of 171.2 ranks 5th) but likely will not get an invite to New York this year (he finished fourth last year). Sweet revenge could still be his however, if Missouri were to upset the Big 12's South champ (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State or Texas) in the Big 12 championship game. Missouri is off next week and closes vs Kansas in Kansas City on November 29.

8) JAVON RINGER (Michigan State) Last Week: 8. Ringer leads the nation with 20 TDs (No. 1 in scoring 10.9 PPG), ranks third in rushing yards (140.7 YPG) and 4th in all-purpose yards (173.2 YPG). The 20 rushing TDs in a season is the second-most in school history, behind Jehuu Caulcrick's 21 set last season. The Spartans are 9-2 for the first time since 1999 and can win a share of the Big Ten title by winning at Penn State this coming Saturday, something they haven't done since 1990. Ringer has seven 100-yard games this year (19 in his career) but was a non-factor last year (13 carries for 48 yards), when the Spartans came back from a 24-7 deficit to beat Penn State 35-31 in East Lansing.

9) MAX HALL (BYU) Last Week: NR. Max Hall red-shirted his freshman year ('04) at Arizona State and then transferred to BYU but left for a mission before joining the football team. When he took over as BYU's starting QB at the beginning of '07, he hadn't played a competitive game in four years. All he did last year was lead BYU to an 11-2 season, passing for 3,848 yards in '07, throwing 26 TDs and just 12 INTs (completed 60.1 percent). BYU entered this year on a 10-game winning streak and extended it to 16 in a row, before losing in Fort Worth to TCU, 32-7. Hall has led the Cougars to four consecutive wins since, throwing for 326.3 YPG with 14 TDs and just two INTs during the run. Hall has 11 career 300-yard games (two of more than 400), is 21-3 as a starter and has led BYU to 20 wins in its last 21 games. BYU travels to salt Lake City this Saturday, hoping to spoil 11-0 Utah's perfect season. The Utes are currently No. 7 in the BCS standings and a win almost assures them their second BCS bowl bid since 2004. Playing with a sprained shoulder last year, Max Hall drove the Cougars 80 yards in seven plays to beat the Utes, 17-10 at Provo. All he had to do was convert on a fourth-and-18 from his own 12 with barely a minute remaining, connecting on 49-yard gain. The play, with 1:05 left, kept the final drive going and led to an 11-yard touchdown run with 38 seconds. Will we see that same kind of drama this year?

10) Up for grabs. You make the call.

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Edmonton vs. Columbus

Chicago vs. Phoenix

 

I still can't believe that Eagles QB Donovan McNabb didn't know there was such a thing as a tie in the NFL 

 "I've never been a part of a tie. I never even knew that was in the rule book," McNabb said after the game. "It's part of the rules, and we have to go with it. I was looking forward to getting the opportunity to get out there and try to drive to win the game. But unfortunately, with the rules, we settled with a tie."

Some of you have already talked about this on the Forums, and I think there is only one solution: Send him back to the 'Cuse.  With Syracuse head coach Greg Robinson getting fired on Sunday, there is an immediate opening.  The Eagles will reportedly save $9 million in 2009 by cutting him loose, so why not send him back to school? 

After all, the Orange football program has not been the same since he left, and I believe he's already done everything he can in the NFL.  Plus, I think he can still learn a thing or two in college 

Time to send an email to Syracuse AD Daryll Gross 

Edmonton vs. Detroit

If you can't beat 'em join 'em I always say because I love over-used gibberish.  So I've decided to become Irish just like those winners O'Baman, O'Shea, and O'Luck. and O'Marco (certain people only need a first name).  Here it is, my very first O'Crowne selection of my life.  You can call it the GAME OF MY LIFE, but my life is pretty ordinary to keep it to ordinary levels..   

WASHINGTON REDSKINS +2 over Dallas

These two teams are evenly matched, but Dallas racks up a huge 18 penalties per game compared to only 9 for Washington.  The extra 9 penalties will account for enough yardage to give Washington the field goal win here getting points.

To get more winner from Rob Crowne CLICK HERE and bookmark the page.  Be sure to watch for my Thanksgiving Special which will begin tomorrow on Monday. 

Washington vs. New Jersey

Ottawa vs. NY Islanders

Buffalo vs. Pittsburgh

Nashville vs. LA Kings

Stay Focussed King!

RUSH DOMINANCE PLAYS 

Tha Arizona Cardinals -3 (-110) WINNER! (2-Units)

The Tennessee Titans -3 (-110) WINNER! (2-Units)

Late Total Play 

Philly/Cincy OVER 40.5 (-120) LOSS (1-Unit)

2-1 day (+2.80 Units)

Right now we are trying to make a strong move in the NFL, and I have an intense desire to move from #12 among "monitored services" to a better ranking. There's a tight grouping of handicappers in the 63% and 70% range, and the dropoff with a failure this weekend could be maddening, so I'm extremely hopeful that our system holds up.

We are sitting at just under 64% at "the monitor" and 63% over here at Pregame in the NFL and we have a nice 5-1(+4.80 Units) record with the "Rush Dominance" Screens.

I guess I'm writing this to say that I'm both pumped and cautious this week, so hopefully we get our best effort tomorrow.

Rush Dominance Watch List (in no particular order):

1. Philadelphia is presenting a decent number at -9, and they have all the makings of a classic "Rush Dominance" play.

Right off the bat we have a 1-back set facing a 4-3 defense that is reeling. The Cincy defense has a serious lack of ability in terms of penetration, and with only 9 sacks, and a 50% 3rd down allowance rate this squad is NOT CAPABLE of covering the various weapons that Philly will offer. In terms of matchups, the Bengals have to account for the 1-Back, and then a slew of options at, or around the line of scrimmage.

Cincy wants to blitz, but how do you steal the men from coverage if you can't sack the QB? Someone will pop open on a check-down. Frankly speaking, the Bengals are a "damned if they do", and "damned if they don't" blitz.

Compunding this weakness is the absence 2 DE's, a LB, and having a safety and another LB that are probable, but nursing injuries. You can't run away from the fact that Philly is one of the top offenses in the NFL facing one of the worst defenses in the league.

This is a simple function of having one team (Philly) that is facing a defense that it was created to dominate (Cincy). The pass-first mentality meets one of the worst pass defense in football. No pass rush. No stability in the second and third levels, and a potential lack of depth, should lead the Eagles into a relaxing day of shooting goldfish in a pond...........................

Problems with Philly: The Bengals are a desperate bunch and they've had 2 weeks to get ready for both the Philly defense and offense. My big worry here is that the Bengals may go back to that "dink and dunk" game that kept them alive in a few matchups.

2. Ravens: There is very little reason to get excited over the Giants at -7.5 (BetUS) when, in fact, the screens are suggesting that the Ravens can give New York all they can handle.

This game is more evenly matched than the line suggests. The giants are a very strong club. They play defense and run the ball, so it's like one "Rush Dominance" monster meeting another.  I ALSO WONDER IF THE RAVENS WILL BE FORCED TO GO VANILLA (on defense) AGAINST THE BEST RUNNING GAME IN THE NFL. I fear this because Baltimore wants to bump the recievers at the line of scrimmage (and run 3-deep coverage schemes), but guys like Plax Burress can break a cornerback over their knee in a technical bump and run. So I suspect that the corners for the Ravens will rock-back and wait on Burress to screw up his routes like he always does.

Either way, this is going to be a bloodbath and both of these teams are so evenly matched that I find it remarkable to see that the line is up to +7.5 at BetUS!

Baltimore has discovered their rhythm on offense, and the odds-makers and the public have yet to catch on. Mason's injury complicates things, but this is not the same Ravens offense that started the year. Quarterback play is probably the difference here, but Flacco isn't making a ton of mistakes, and Eli may not fare too well on Sunday. In fact, if we have to speak about Eli Manning, just remember that  he tends to look like a deer in the headlights against the top level defenses, and I suspect he will offer the Ravens a few freebies before the day is over.

Baltimore CAN push Manning out of the pocket, and I think they will be sitting on routes, so the turnover differential may go in Baltimore's favor. It seems to me that the Ravens might complicate Manning's efficiency by getting away from the press, and settling into the zone, and 2-deep coverage schemes.....................

Problems with Baltimore: If Baltimore cannot run the ball, then the advanced coverage schemes orchestrated by Spagnuolo (DC-Giants) WILL disrupt Flacco. There's no doubt about it. The Ravens can't keep their defense on the field with a poor showing in the running game.

3. As usual, the Titans are falling under serious consideration as a Rush Dominance play. They certainly merit the approval of the early screens.

Get ready for the "fade Tennessee" crowd. I wonder if a large number of people are automatically going against the road favorite that's undefeated? They have to lose sooner or later right?

The numbers don't support a fade on Tennessee.

Defense travels. Especially a defense that holds opposing QB's to a dismal 60.49 Passer rating. And forget about the passing numbers....what about holding opponents to an average of 90 yards rushing per game?

Like Baltimore, Tennessee is adapting to their TE, and the passing numbers are now swelling as a result. When a defense, like Tennessee, is backed by an offense that has only allowed 5 sacks all season, and passed for almost 300 yards last week against the Bears, then you have a strong team, and one that may be heavily underrated at the window..................

Problems with Tennessee: It's a road game; they are  the favorites, and It's the NFL.  Jacksonville piled on SEVEN SACKS last week VS Detroit, and the defense may be finding its legs. Jones-Drew is beginning to look like the guy that shredded defenses in his debut season. I also wonder if Greg Williams will throw the kitchen sink at Kerry Collins. Tennessee is a team that can decifer a defense with their own movement, but Williams may pressure Collins more than past opponents. So are we fearing a 13-10 final like the Titans had in the Baltimore game?

4. The Redskins have entered the realm of Rush Dominance, even with their weakness at the RB position.

Dallas is the #12 Offense and the #12 Defense, and we certainly have to respect the potential re-emergence of Romo, but all we have to do is look backward a few weeks to see what Washington can do to this Dallas team. It was a systematic erasure of the Dallas running game that led Washington to victory.

Do you remember that Romo threw the ball 47 times and that Marion Barber ran the ball only 8 times? Marion was the leading rusher, and T.O. Was #2 with 2 carries!

What does that tell us about Sundays game?

It tells me that a bum pinkie finger will get a ton of work, and if it doesn't, then how successful is that power running game going to be? 8 carries? Either way, it's hard to envision a potent Dallas attack tomorrow.

I know all games shouldn't be treated the same, but we are confirming a gameplan that Garrett thought he could impose on Washington. He wanted to pass the ball. Unfortunately, he passed for an average of 6.4 yards per attempt.

This is a Washington defense that can limit a passer to UNDERNEATH routes, and if Dallas doesn't find running room against the #4 defense in the NFL, then where will Dallas find itself on Sunday?

One way or another we could see an UNDER brewing here, but I think we have a hidden gem in Washington........................

Problems with Washington: Even though they made an extra effort to roll coverage on T.O, and actually gameplanned to shut down the passing game, the Cowboys still racked up a ton of passing yards. Are they going to get away from run stuffing in order to stop the Cowboy air attack?

5. Arizona seems to be lining up as a Rush Dom play, even with the potential threats of Seattle's apparently revitalized team.

Poor Seattle: Kerney is out, the pass rush is still at it's weakest point this season, the safeties are slow, and the corners are not consistant. When a team faces Warner, they want to blitz him, get in his face, and try to disrupt his timing, but Warner has turned into the best "hot-read QB" in the league, and the guys that he "checks-down to are some of the best YAC recievers in the NFL. Poor Seattle.

You have 3rd best offense in the NFL facing one of the worst defenses in the league. The math should be pretty simple here, right?

Maybe not.

Problems with Arizona: We talk about penalties in our handicapping, and this Cardinal team is the king of shooting themselves int he foot. Seattle's poor defense mitigates some of our concern with the hankies, but it's hard to ignore their tendency to give away yardage. Playing at Seattle will NOT help the Cards in this matter. Hasselbeck may provide trouble for Arizona's reckless, but talented secondary. Their zones are fairly easy to crack, so Matt's arrival may confound the Zona defense and send the game into "shootout mode".

6. Carolina is sitting on a huge line, but there is reason to believe that they can tow that bloated number.

Carolina tends to cover big numbers this season, so the high price is not unjustified. If people are waiting to see Culpepper rise from the ashes, then it wont be this week. It's been years since Daunte Culpepper has sniffed more than 6 or 7 yards per pass attempt, and I don't expect it to change any time soon. I think the line is justified.

And consider this: Jacksonville ran all over this Detroit defense. And Carolina has the tools to inflict even more damage with Williams and Stewart. It could get ugly in the second half.

Problems with Carolina: Oakland made them look bad! And how many teams cover those big spreads when their primary mode of travel is the running game?

7. Pittsburgh is once again in the Rush Dominance discussion. (More to follow in this game)

There's a lot to write, this blog will unfold over the duration of the day.....

I have posted my two strongest Rush Dominance plays over at Pregame Pros, and they come from the qualifiers above.

I hope to post a "Rush Dom" total in this blog as the day progresses.

CLICK HERE FOR THE KM'S 4-UNIT "RUSH DOMINANCE" PACKAGE

The King Maker's NFL Record 19-11 (+6.95)

Added Late Play:

Philadelphia/Cincinnatti OVER 40.5 (-120) at BetUS

1-Unit

I already highlighted the mismatch between the Philly offensive set and the Bengals defense, and I truly believe that Philly will approach 31 points with no problem. It's not a stretch for me to assume that a defense allowing a 50% 3rd down conversion rate will continue to bleed points all over the field.

What is Donovan going to do against a non-existant pass rush? You can answer that.

It should be a huge blowout, but I suspect you might see a little life from the Bengal Offense. Maybe we see an interesting game here.

I think we have a great shot!

East Carolina @ Southern Miss  3:00 PM EST
Play On:  (#347)  1* East Carolina +3
 
East Carolina is 12-4 ATS last 3 years as an underdog.  East Carolina is 7-0 SU and ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.  Pirates are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.  Golden Eagles are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Golden Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Golden Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.  Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.  We'll play East Carolina for 1 unit today!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Despite losing our 3* Jazz we posted here for free, our full time clients were treated to yet another winning day on Friday!  Rocky has a TOP RATED 5* CFB play, TOP 4* CFB play, 1* CFB play (Above), 3* CBB and a 3* NBA play ready now.  We will also have some NHL plays loading a little later where we are documented #1 this year.  TOP 4 and 5 unit CFB plays are 18-8 69% last 2  years!  We won our first CBB release last night on UC Davis +11 1/2 winning easily wire to wire.  We finished last year CBB 72-36 67% for the entire season!  Don't miss out on some great opportunities today!

Tony Romo has a key trend in his favor this week

Don't look now but with Thanksgiving Day dinner on the burner it's getting to be 'push-comes-to-shove' time in college football.  With teams scurrying to become bowl eligible and others looking to protect perfect seasons it is a good time to be a handicapper. 

Here is this week's take on some of the big game on taps on the College and NFL cards this weekend.  Remember, Series History reflects results in head-to-head battles between the two teams.  All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Ohio State at Illinois

Series History: Illini won, 28-21, at 15-point dogs at Columbus last season to improve to 6-1 the last 7 games in this series.

Ohio State Key Stat: The Buckeyes are 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS conference revenge under head coach Jim Tressel.

Illinois Key Stat: The Illini have lost the money in 8 of the last 10 tries against avenging Big 10 teams.

You Need To Know: Since last season, five Big 10 teams have lost to a MAC Conference team.  They are 0-4 ATS in their next game.

California at Oregon State

Series History: The Beavers upset the Bears, 31-28, as 14-point dogs at Berkeley last year, improving the record of the visiting team to 5-0 SU and ATS the last five meetings in this series.

California Key Stat: The Bears are 0-4 ATS as conference dogs of less than 6 points.

Oregon State Key Stat: The Beavers have held 3 of 6 conference opponents to season low - or 2nd low - yards this season.

You Need To Know: Oregon State controls it's own destiny in the PAC 10.  If they win out they win the conference title and a trip to the Rose Bowl.

South Carolina at Florida

Series History: The Gators are 15-1 SU the last sixteen games in this series, including 5-1 ATS off a SU and ATS win.

South Carolina Key Stat: Steve Spurrier is 47-23 SU and ATS on the conference road in his college football head coaching career.

Florida Key Stat: The Gators are 16-7-1 in conference games after scoring 40 or more points in each of its previous four games.

You Need To Know: Last year's 51-31 loss in Columbia represented the most points ever allowed by a Spurrier team in a conference game in his college football head coaching career spanning 153 games.

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE

Tennessee at Jacksonville

Series History: The Titans beat the Jaguars, 17-10, as 3-point home dogs in their season opener this year.  The underdog in this series is 8-2.

Tennessee Key Stat: The Titans are 1-9 in November with a .500 or greater record versus an opponent off a double-digit win.

Jacksonville Key Stat: The Jaguars are 7-1 in November versus an opponent off back-to-back wins.

You Need To Know: Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio is 17-6 as a dog with revenge, including 13-2 if his team's win percentage is .444 or greater.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay

Series History: The Bucs are 4-1 the last five meetings and 5-0 the last five as a series host.

Minnesota Key Stat: The Vikings are 2-13 as a road dog off back-to-back wins versus a non-division NFC opponent.

Tampa Bay Key Stat: Bucs head coach Jon Gruden is 10-3 in his career with rest, including 6-1 at home.

You Need To Know: The Bucs are 3-1 SU and 4-0 In The Stats since switching to Jeff Garcia as their starting quarterback this season.

Dallas at Washington

Series History: The Redskins upset the Cowboys, 26-24, as 10,5-point underdogs at Dallas in Week Three this season, improving to 6-1 the last 7 games in this series.

Dallas Key Stat: The Cowboys are 10-4 with rest versus an opponent off a loss.

Washington Key Stat: The Redskins are 1-13 in November off a non-division game versus and opponent off a SU and ATS loss.

You Need To Know: NFL teams are 6-16 in their next game after facing Mike Tomlin's Steelers.

Other Top Trends for this weekend: BYU is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS versus an opponent off a win in games before Utah... Central Florida is 5-1 SU and 6-1 ATS as a single-digit road dog... USC is 25-0 SU and 20-5 ATS in November under head coach Peter Carroll... The Atlanta Falcons are 1-10 off a double-digit as a .500 or greater teams versus a .500 or greater team... The Miami Dolphins are 2-17 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more points when playing off a win... The 49ers are 12-0 as a favorite of 14 or less points versus the Rams.

This Week's Super System Says: PLAY ON any .500 or greater college conference home dog of 2 or more points in its Last Home Game of the season if they won 10 or more games last year.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 15-4 Play On: Kansas

> Get Marc's Favorite & Underdog Games of the Week at Pregame Pros!

With the Celtics edging the surprising 103-102 Hawks earlier Wednesday night, the Lakers head into the weekend as the NBA's lone remaining unbeaten team, at 7-0 (6-1 ATS). It's the first time the team's opened 7-0 since the 2001-02 season, the year of the franchise's last championship. It should be noted that the Lakers' best-ever start to open a season came in the 1997-98 season, when they opened 11-0, finished 61-21 but were swept 4-0 by the Utah Jazz in the Western Conference finals.

It's far too early to 'crown' the Lakers just yet but the team's early numbers are truly impressive. LA leads the NBA in scoring (104.7 PPG) and is also an NBA-best in points allowed (86.7 PPG). That combo gives them a point-differential of plus-18.0 PPG, a figure that is truly mind-boggling. Here's just a quick historical perspective.

Comparing LA's point-differential start this year to the NBA's top regular-season teams in each of the last five seasons reveals this. Boston went 66-16 last year with a point-differential of plus-10.3 PPG. The preceding years were as follows. The 61-21 Mavs (2006-07) came in at 7.3, the 64-18 Pistons (2005-06) at 6.7, the 62-20 Suns (2004-05) at 7.1 and the 61-21 Pacers (2003-04) at 5.8.

Point-differential is a great indicator of a team's real strength and it should be noted that only last year's Celtics (among the five teams just listed) went on to win an NBA title. It's no coincidence that Boston's 10.3 PPG differential was a full three points better than any of the other four teams and 4.5 PPG better than the worst of the four teams, the 2003-04 Pacers.

Michael Jordan's best Chicago Bulls team was the one which set an NBA record for wins in a season, going 72-10 in the 1995-96 season. The Bulls led the NBA in scoring that year (105.2 PPG) and finished third-best in points allowed (92.9). Chicago's point-differential was 12.2 PPG but not the nest all-time. That belongs to another Laker team.

In 1971-72, Wilt Chamberlain and Jerry West led the Lakers to a then NBA record 69 wins. That team won an incredible 33 straight games at one point during that season (still an NBA record), finishing that year as the league's top-scoring team (121.0 PPG) and its sixth-best defensive team (allowed 108.7). Doing the math, one gets a point-differential of 12.3. As the Lakers progress through this season, let's keep an eye on that number.

The Staples Center will host two games over the weekend, Friday night when the Lakers meet the Pistons and Saturday afternoon, when the Clippers take on the Warriors. What the Lakers are 'giving' the fans of LA this year, the Clippers are 'taking away.' While the Lakers were moving to 7-0 on Wednesday, the Clippers were losing 103-98 in the Staples Center to the Sacramento Kings. The loss drops "LA's other team" to 1-7 SU and ATS.

The Clippers are not just losing, they are getting 'killed!' No NBA team is scoring less that the Clippers' 88.3 PPG average and coupled with the 101.6 PPG they are allowing (five teams allow more), the Clippers' point-differential is an abysmal, minus-13.4 PPG. Let's compare the Clippers' current point-differential mark to that of the worst teams of each of the last five NBA seasons, starting with last year and going backwards.

The Heat won just 15 games last year and had a point-differential of minus-8.6 PPG. The Grizzlies won 20 games in 2006-07 (minus-5.1), the Blazers won 21 games in 2005-06 (minus-9.5), the Hawks won 13 games in 2004-05 (minus-9.7) and the Magic won 21 games in 2003-04 (minus-7.0).

What do Clipper fans have to look forward to the rest of the year? Who knows for sure this early? However, I will mention that the worst season in