What do you guys means when you say units? I'm sure its like $10 or $100, but I'm very curious as to what it actually is.

ok, this game completely jumps out at me. let me know what you guys think.... Saturday, October 18th, 11:00 AM CST Texas Tech @ Texas A&M (+21.5) This line is going to drop down to 18.5 or 19.5 by kickoff I am positive.

seriously Giants?

A couple of interesting trends on this game, there have been 7 home team favorites of 6 points on either the opening or closing line. All 7 of those teams covered the spread. 5 have lost the next game. Two of those teams haven't played their next game yet. The Giants play it tonight and the Chargers next week. 7 straight teams won and covered the spread the first game they played without one of their high profile receivers. Tonight the Browns are without their leading receiver. Not calling it a lock in any way. But the systems/trends are right on if Cleveland comes out and plays tonight with the kind of intensity we have seen from other teams that were 7+ home dogs on MNF food for thought only

Folks, hate to clutter the board when we don't have a play on MNF, but just wanted to explain who we are and what we do. Yet another e-mail for you guys to read, or ignore, Just wanted to say thanks for checking out Statnerds. Congrats on your 4 free weeks. We went 6-1 in NCAA and 8-2 in the NFL for an overall record of 14-3. Hope it helped. There is no sales pitch coming, so don't expect it. We only ask that you spread the legend of Statnerds far and wide. We didn't do this to get people to sign up. We did as just another thing to set Statnerds apart from the normal, everyday handicapping circus. And this will sound strange and possibly frightening, but I really feel like we have a calling and a purpose here. I want to operate with honesty, I want to gain the trust of people, I want to save people from unethical salesmen disguised as handicappers that just take money and often too much for their service, but most of all I want to win. Again, thanks for taking the time to check us out. I hope you enjoyed this promotion because it was easily my favorite one. I plan on doing it the rest of this year and next year as well. GL the rest of the season, Stats Why do handicappers give out free plays? I thought it would great if we gave out our service for free for 4 weeks to 5 people selected at random off our e-mail list. So, 5 randomly selected people received our service free of charge for 4 weeks simply for checking us out. And I already selected the next 5 people to start this weekend. Last year we ran an elimination poll and the winner received this entire season free of charge. Also thought it would be a great idea to be monitored, but we are really hesitant to pay a fee for such a service, just seems like conflict of interest. So, while I am giving everyone on this great forum our plays for free, you guys (and gals) are in fact monitoring our service. I just really don't want to be like other cappers that magically have a play for everyday. Part of the reason we don't sell daily plays. Month or season only. I firmly believe we are all in this together. It is about building a bankroll, staying disciplined and understanding there is not a play on every game. If you read this, thank you. If not, I understand. GL everyone

THIS WEEK Best Bets (0-2)(-6.60 units) Strong Plays (2-0)(+4.00 units) Regular Plays (4-1)(+2.90 units) Overall (6-3)(+0.30 units) FOR THE SEASON Best Bets (3-6)(-10.80 units) Strong Plays (11-2)(+17.60 units) Regular Plays (19-8)(+10.20 units) Overall (33-16)(+17.00 units) This week was almost identical to last week. I went 0-2 in best bets again, 2-0 in strong plays and this week I went 4-1 in my regular plays while last week I went 5-0. So even though I dropped both best bets again, I still had a winning week although it was only for 0.30 units. Kind of crazy out of my three categories of picks that my best bets have by far been my worst picks, yet I am still having a pretty good NFL season at plus seventeen units. I took a pass on the Sunday night game. I kept going back and forth on it. I did like the Pats early in the week, then kept switching back and forth, so I took a pass on it. MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL Cleveland +8 vs Giants (regular play)………………Glad I took a pass on the Sunday night game, I would have lost. I am going to play tonight, but just a one unit regular play. I like it, don’t love it. Giants are the road kings over the past two seasons. The Browns really suck, but after watching St Louis win and Detroit almost win yesterday….anything is possible. Also hard to pass up a home dog on Monday Night Football. I think the Giants will get the win, but the Browns will get the cover. I am more into my Phillies playing tonight than I am the football game. I think I might have to put a little something on my Phillies being such a big dog and just about everybody seems to be on Manny and the Dodgers. Good Luck Everybody!!

*Record 2-1 +4.65 units* Not a bad start for a rookie!:thumb: Afternoon pucks to make the day go bye-lets play two!! (both for 2 units) St. Louis +100 Buffalo -135 Bobby O

Brad Johnson is your new QB..Yikes!!!!!:monkeyass Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has a broken pinkie on his throwing hand and will be out four weeks, a team source told ESPN's Michael Smith. Romo initially was diagnosed with a pinkie sprain in Sunday's 30-24 overtime loss to the Arizona Cardinals. The injury will not require surgery, a member of the Cowboys' medical staff told ESPN.com's Matt Mosley. Veteran quarterback Brad Johnson, the Cowboys' holder on kicks, is Romo's backup. The Cowboys have lost two of their last three games after starting the season 3-0. If Romo's absence follows the four-week timeline, he would miss only three games (at St. Louis, home to Tampa Bay, at the New York Giants). Dallas has a bye on Nov. 9, then visits Washington on Nov. 16. Since making his first NFL start on Oct. 29, 2006, Romo has a league-best 66 touchdown passes -- two more than New England's Tom Brady -- and 8,541 passing yards (second to Drew Brees' 9,325 yards). Bobby O

Sent this e-mail out to folks last year. We are all in this together to beat our books and I just feel information is power. Consider the following: Yes, when talking about college football. Allow us to explain. First some excited news. We started an elimination contest for our season subscribers with first prize being next season absolutely free. Second, we reactively recruited an intern from Wisconsin. Once he or she proves his mettle, you will hear more about him or her. Third and finally, we announce the return of free picks. They will be rare and completely based on our in-house developed computer super-system. Why are they free when we preach against free selections? They will be late night releases, Saturday nights only, around 9 or 10 p.m. and that is much too late to have people sign on and purchase them and distribute them to our season holders. We actually held back the first one on UTEP. These plays will be based solely Back to the tease. How good is Vegas? Well, when we talk about the college game they suck…terribly. Add this one to the rules we sent last time: avoid teasing lines in college. We started tracking this last year, but last week proves our point just as well. The worst record possible if teasing every team over week one was 47-47. One would think increasing or reducing the point spread would result in a greater opportunity of winning. Not so fast my Corso. If you had indeed teased every team by 7 points you would have improved the record from 47-47 to 62-32-1, or merely 65% winners. Not impressed? Well remember a tease involves at least two teams. *So, the odds of making a two-team 7 point tease a winner was 42%*. Catching on yet? Additionally local books usually increase the vig from $1.10 to $1.20. *You actually pay your man to reduce your chances of winning.* Return now to our earlier claim of Vegas sucking with their line creations. Look at this from another direction. Okay, we had 47 games last week. Tease the spread of each one 7 points both ways. That creates a 14-point cushion around the spread. And how many games landed within that cushion? *Only 15 of 47 games stayed within a touchdown of the spread, or 32%*. If that isn’t enough to scare you straight, we do not know what is.

Vancouver at Washington (-125, 5.5) Early indicators is that both of these teams will put up goals in bunches. Although this may be a bit tainted by the Nucks whipping up on the goaltender less, err…I mean Calgary Flames both games so far this year. The Nucks are 1/14 on the PP and have a perfect 13-for-13 PKs. I look for both of these numbers to be more evened out by the end of this game. The Caps should be able to slice though through Vancouver’s D with a bit more ease. Just as the Nucks should not have much of a problem with Washington's blue line. Theodore had a much better game against Chicago on Saturday, but take note that he only faced 21 shots so he wasn’t tested that much. There is still a major question mark in goal. Theodore has owned Vancouver since he started playing with the Avs. He is 9-4 and the OU is 6-7 against them. Luongo is 13-4-3, winning the last 10 games and the OU is 3-14-3 Nice clash of stats here. But putting that all aside and taking the over. Pick: over 5.5 Montreal at Philadelphia (-115, 5.5) This series is going to be great this year. The Flyers started the year off by dropping a 4-3 game to the Rangers on Saturday. Considering that the Rangers have started 4-0 for the first time in 25 years there really isn't much shame in that. Last year the Flyers had a huge turnaround in the standings and it had a great deal to do with their physical play and key free agent signings. In the offseason this year they lost a couple guys in the likes of Jim Dowd and R.J. Umberger, but signed Arron Asham and Ossi Vaananen. The blue line is still big and strong. They are not going to score many goals, but when you cross them you will have a few marks on you to remember it by. Look for many penalty kills from this team. They have a huge mark on them because of their play and every little ticky tack thing will be called. Martin Biron will have starting duties once again this year. The backup in Buffalo finally got his chance in Philly and he has made the most of it. Montreal seems to have all of the pieces to make a Cup run in their 100th year. They have started out by getting points in their first two games. They do have a shot at it with everything falling perfectly into place. This teams third line could be starting on some teams. Starting with the pickups on the offseason, Alex Tanguay dropped off last year to 58 points from 81 the year before. But being on the same line with Plekanec and Kovalev should take care of that little problem. The Habs also picked up a veteran presence in Robert Lang that will keep things on the straight and narrow. He had 54 points for a very middle of the road Hawks team last year. It should be interesting to see him between the Kostitsyn brothers on the second line. I’m not sure how Koivu will handle being knocked down a line. It will really test his character, but that’s the great thing about this team - if someone starts to falter there is no shortage of players that can step up. With some of the players being knocked around last year, Georges Larque was signed for some protection muscle. That should give the guys a bit more space out there. Kovalev found his scoring touch again last year, putting up 84 points, the most he has had since the 2000 season when he was with the Pens. I don’t know if I expect that from him again this year, but 30 goals and 40 helpers is not out of the question. These teams played over in six of nine meetings last year. There were power play goals scored in every game and there should be a couple scored in this one. Look for plenty of penalties and plenty of open ice. "Want some foil coach?” Pick: Over 5.5 Raji

Preseason betting in any sport can be a tricky endeavor, but it can be an even bigger challenge in the NBA. In the NFL, we get good information from coaches throughout the week on player rotations, quarterback substitutions and sometimes even a look into the game plan. In the NBA we don’t get this kind of information - although a coach may dish who will be getting the most and/or least playing time in certain games. Even with this info foul trouble, injuries and general fatigue can all hinder your research. Looking at game-by-game matchups may take too long since this information is not readily available. Instead glancing at the league across the board may be the way to go. Do certain teams try to win their preseason games? Are certain teams more apt to worry about looking at roster spots? These questions need to be answered before blindly betting any teams. The age of a roster can help out greatly as an older team is going to play a lot of young players to avoid injuries and evade too much work early on. The preseason betting line, like the NFL, will favor the home team the majority of the time so we can usually find some great value in the underdogs. So far this preseason, underdogs are hitting at a 66.7 percent clip, going 14-7 ATS. You will not find many big underdogs in the preseason since linesmakers do not know how teams are going to play these games out. Looking at underdogs of more than six points is usually a lucrative strategy. NBA teams dogged by at least six points are 6-2 ATS this preseason. Another thing bettors should monitor during the exhibition calendar is totals. Linesmakers are normally a little bit slower to catch on to the proper number for a given preseason game. The under has been a big hit early on, but now may be the time to start betting the overs since totals will be adjusted and the value will flip to the other way. Low scoring games tend to occur early on as players simply are not in shooting form and team offenses are still in the beginning stages of work. Start to look at over plays after a club’s third exhibition match. Games are averaging 184.3 points per game, proving the point that these early games are low scoring. We should see a sharp increase once teams have had a couple games played. It’s important to note that scoring has gone up in the preseason in each of the last four years. In 2004, the average preseason score was 182.7 ppg. That has risen each year to 187.4 in 2005, 195.4 in 2006 and 196.0 in 2007. The pattern may break this year but the totals should still rise from the current average as the preseason progresses. Raji

The most incredible thing about this Monday Night Football matchup between the Giants and the Browns is that at some point in the recent past someone thought that it would make for a good game. Given the total mess that Cleveland has been this year, it is hard to remember that at this time this year they were the darlings of the league and Derek Anderson was on the lips of every member of the media. Heck, going into this season, the team was greeted at their training camp by chants of Super Bowl, Super Bowl! And their fans weren't being ironic, either. Rarely does a team so badly underachieve compared to widely held expectations. Cleveland has just been bad. The line movement has been interesting only in that it is doing almost exactly what you could have predicted. It opened with the Giants favored by a touchdown, was almost immediately pounded up to nine on heavy New York action, and then has sat at that level since. About two-thirds of all bets are on the Giants. There is one interesting aspect to it, though. The line can still be found at some online books as low as 7.5, but at other books that have it a nine the price is as high as -130. It would seem, then, that some books are facing much more upwards pressure than others. The total opened at 43, and is available both at that point and at 43.5. The fact that it hasn't moved upwards despite heavily tilted public over action is a clear sign that the books already knew where the action was going to be and weighted the number accordingly. It didn't exactly take a psychic to foresee the public's whims, either - the public loves the over, and the over hasn't lost on Monday night yet this year, so there is zero incentive for the public to change their habits. I'm only half kidding when I say I'm a bit surprised the books didn't set the number at 58 or so - they'd still get a big pile of public money on the over. As if things aren't bad enough in Cleveland, they may now be without their best player. Tight end Kellen Winslow has accounted for almost a third of all receiving yards for the team, and he has nearly twice as many yards as anyone else. He was in the hospital on Thursday and Friday nights, though, with tests being administered to determine and treat a mystery illness. Rumors abound about the type of illness, and if any of them are true then you know Winslow just isn't comfortable (hint - groin issue). He hasn't been ruled out of action yet, but it seems likely. That's a blow for an offense that was already reeling - they are dead last in passing in the league. On the other hand, Winslow has been so fragile throughout his career that surely the team had thought that has absence at some point this year was a possibility and planned accordingly. Or maybe that's giving Romeo Crennel and his staff too much credit. Those who don't like or believe in the Giants, and I count myself firmly in that group thanks to a hatred of Eli Manning that borders on irrational, will point to their schedule as the key reason for their success. They have beaten two really bad teams in Cincinnati and St. Louis, a badly struggling one that can't travel east in Seattle, and a Washington team that is impressive now but clearly needed another week of preseason action when they faced the Giants. This game presents another less-than-full challenge for a team that could be 5-0 without barely breaking a sweat. If that thought is a bit repulsive than you could grasp at a bit of algebra - the Giants struggled to beat Cincinnati in overtime, the Browns beat the Bengals in their only win, so therefore maybe Cleveland is up for this challenge. To their advantage, Cleveland is at home. They covered their last seven spreads at home last year, and are 1-1 ATS in Cleveland this year. Raji

I just dont' get it. Every NFL sideline reporter knows it, opposing teams know it, the Chargers staff knows. LT's injury (broken toe they aren't saying a word about) is going to cost San Diego a playoff spot. It's even more evident tonight how much his toe is limiting him. 3 plays in particular stand out where the old LT would have cut back and busted another 5 to 15 yards. One play was a yard short of the first down and he simply continued out of bounds. LT gets in the end zone pre-injury on that draw just before half also. You have Sproles who is more than capable and provides that unneasy feeling to defenders when they attempt to tackle him. LT's game (and more so the Chargers) isn't about pounding between the tackles like Graham (Tampa Bay), Grant (Green Bay), Lewis (Cleveland) or Portis (Redskins). I know LT is vital to the NFL in regard to public opinion and the common fan. I know he has contract stipulations that are VERY LUCRATIVE based on performance. I know LT has more pull with the Chargers than Norv Turner. All things considered, these factors need to pushed to the back. If I were Turner I would be more concerned about winning then satisfying the long time superstar. Turner can be fired, LT can't.

Has everyone else's fantasy leagues been just nuts this year also? No consistency among elite players like there used to be even a year ago. I rememember last year you could always count on AP, LT, Westbrook getting atleast 1 TD or 100 yards. Or TO, Moss, Plaxico getting 8 catches for 100 yards and a score. Or Brady, Romo, Brees passing consistently for 250 and 2 TDs on average. Now it just seems like a total crap shoot. anyone agree?

Two drive killing fumbles. Gonna cost me the cover