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The most significant growth in mobile phone handset markets will occur at the top and bottom ends of the price and features range, as the smartphone and low-cost handset categories expand at the expense of the mid-range "enhanced" models.
The enhanced phone sector is currently the largest in terms of shipments -- 2007 saw 854 million units shipped. But it will be overtaken by both other classes in 2013, with just 441 million shipping. According to ABI Research director Kevin Burden, "As we see more user sophistication and demand for high-end features, handset manufacturers will continue to push functions of high-level smartphone operating systems further down their product lines. Their smartphone portfolios will grow, and with them, the entire smartphone market." Mobile operators want more smartphone users too, because they generate higher ARPU. And operators like phones with standard operating systems that are optimized for their content delivery platforms. Meanwhile, driven by the huge emerging markets in countries such as China, India, and Brazil, the low-cost and ultra-low-cost handset categories are set to become the largest classes of mobile phones by 2013 in terms of shipments, though not in terms of revenue. "While the unit shipments of ultra-low-cost handsets will be dramatic over the forecast period, the device class is only expected to account for 6 percent of the market's overall revenue," notes Burden. "But vendors will continue to pursue these markets for the sake of brand-building and the prospect of eventual upward migration by users." Since no single mobile device will serve the needs of everyone, a number of other form factors will compete for user's mobile computing cycles. In particular, MIDs (Mobile Internet Devices) and UMPCs (Ultra-mobile PCs) show promise for wider consumer acceptance. According to ABI's assessment, prices will be moderate (eventually under $200 for many MIDs) and they'll typically deliver a superior mobile Internet experience. The commercial applications for digital media are growing fast. IDC conducted a survey to assess adoption of video usage within the business environment for internal communications with employees, training, collaboration, etc.
Their findings come from IDC's Enterprise Panel. The panel is an online community of IT and line-of-business professionals who influence the technology-related investment decisions of their organization. The panel includes worldwide businesses of all sizes and in all industries. If you believe that business video applications are just for large corporations, or that SMBs can't benefit from the availability of digital media basic authoring tools, then you should read my post entitled "Business Video on an SMB Budget" -- which is featured on Dell's Small Business blog. Key findings from IDC's survey include: - Videoconferencing (or TelePresence) is the most dominant use-case for enterprise video today, followed closely by employee training, record/playback of meetings, and executive communications to employees. - At the majority of organizations that use business video today, employees watch the video on their PCs (both on-demand and live). Respondents expect a significant increase in the use of enterprise video to employee's mobile phones and iPods in the next two years. Video will become pervasive across multiple channels. - The typical employee watches 4.6 hours of enterprise video per month today; survey respondents expect that number to more than double to 9.8 hours per month over the next two years. - Respondents ranked cost avoidance, improved collaboration, and improved customer service highly as business drivers for adoption of enterprise video; reinforcing company culture or branding ranked close behind. - IT and corporate communications own the budget for business video, but budgets are often fragmented across the organization. According to IDC estimates, about a quarter of the world's population -- roughly 1.4 billion people -- will use the Internet on a regular basis in 2008. That number is expected to surpass 1.9 billion unique users, or 30 percent of the world's population, in 2012.
"The Internet will have added its second billion users over a span of about eight years, a testament to both its universal appeal and its availability," said John Gantz, chief research officer at IDC. "In this time, the Internet has also become more deeply integrated into the fabric of many user's personal and professional lives, enabling them to work, play, and socialize anytime from anywhere. These trends will accelerate as the number of mobile users continues to soar and the Internet becomes truly ubiquitous." While the PC is currently the dominant means of gaining access to the Internet, IDC expects the number of mobile devices accessing the Internet will surpass the number of online PCs by 2012. Once on the Internet, users will continue to spend time on Web 1.0 activities like searching, shopping, and sending email. But Web 2.0 activities, such as watching user-generated videos, posting blogs, and participating in social networks, are quickly capturing the attention and time online of more and more Internet users. The latter will create new opportunities and challenges for online advertisers seeking to monetize the Internet experience. IDC's forecast includes the following: - Users will access the Internet through more than 1.5 billion devices worldwide in 2008, including PCs, mobile phones, and online video game consoles. By 2012, the number of devices accessing the Internet will double to more than 3 billion, half of which will be mobile devices. - China passed the United States in 2007 to become the country with the largest number of Internet users. China's online population is forecast to grow from 275 million users in 2008 to 375 million users in 2012. - Nearly half of all Internet users will make online purchases in 2008. By 2012, there will be more than 1 billion online buyers worldwide making business to consumer (B2C) transactions worth $1.2 trillion. Business to business (B2B) eCommerce will be ten times larger, totaling $12.4 trillion worldwide in 2012. - Worldwide spending on Internet advertising will total $65.2 billion in 2008, which is nearly 10 percent of all ad spending across all media. This share is expected to reach 13.6 percent by 2011 as Internet ad spending grows to $106.6 billion worldwide. - Roughly 40 percent of all Internet users worldwide currently have mobile Internet access. The number of mobile Internet users will reach 546 million in 2008, nearly twice as many as in 2006, and is forecast to surpass 1.5 billion worldwide in 2012. The worldwide shipment growth of personal navigation devices (PNDs) was higher than anticipated last year, with shipments reaching 30.7 million in 2007, up from 13.3 million in 2006, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.
The main drivers for this growth were price declines, efficient volume availability through the retail channels during the holiday season, enhanced functionality, and stronger consumer demand for navigation overall. "However, the PND market faces strong competition from both mobile phone handset navigation and embedded automotive navigation systems," says Stephanie Ethier, In-Stat analyst. "In particular, vendors in handset navigation are starting to offer a number of value-added services, such as pedestrian navigation, offline navigation, and searches for local points of interest." Their research covers the worldwide market for personal navigation devices. It offers a revised PND forecast that takes into account market developments that occurred in the second half of 2007 and in the first half of 2008. It also provides a regional breakout for PND shipments. Competitive threats such as in-car navigation and GPS-enabled handsets are discussed. In-Stat's market study found the following: - Worldwide unit shipments of PNDs are expected to grow from 30.7 million units in 2007 to 68 million units in 2012. - PND manufacturers are integrating advanced functionality in PNDs in order to improve the price or performance value. MTV Networks (MTVN) and Harris Interactive research reveals a companion metric to measuring audience size, offering a new way for advertisers to potentially target the most engaged and valuable TV and online audiences.
Their research study confirms that not all programming viewers are created equal and that the value of television and online advertising grows as viewers connect with marketing messages across multiple device screens. Following-up on its prior case study, MTV Networks and Harris Interactive conducted research across MTVN's brands, which provides empirical evidence that audiences develop stronger emotional connections to content and advertising messages when they consume and interact with them across multiple platforms. In total, more than 20,000 respondents between 13 and 49 participated in evaluating MTV Networks' programs, as well as competitive programs, networks and websites along a series of questions geared to defining a scalable and predictive engagement measurement model that, in effect, unlocks the value of engagement for marketers. Specifically, this study reveals that some viewers are significantly more engaged with the content than others. These viewers with higher engagement are more likely to remember seeing adverts, internalize the message and be motivated by it to share more about the content and advertising with others -- when compared with those that are less engaged. This translates into increased purchase intent -- up to two- and three-times -- among viewers for brands that advertise in engagement-rich environments. As media touch points have multiplied for consumers during the past decade, many producers and marketers have struggled to understand the factors driving audience engagement with brands and programming in this multi-platform environment that includes television, online and mobile devices. The level of engagement with digital media has critical implications for an advertiser. Advancing technologies, especially Web-based, are altering consumers' relationships with brands, particularly among those whom are most tightly engaged with the program. According to an Infonetics Research study, worldwide mobile video phone sales neared $99 billion in 2007 and are expected to grow strongly over the next 5 years, despite the challenge service providers face in making mobile video services profitable.
Infonetics' report provides worldwide and regional market size and forecasts of mobile video service revenue, mobile video subscribers and mobile video phones in the various industry standard segments (3G/MBMS, DVB-H, FLO, ISDB-T, S/T-DMB, and DAB). The report shows that the number of mobile video subscribers topped 10 million worldwide in 2007, and is expected to nearly triple by the end of 2008, with explosive growth continuing through at least 2011. "The cost to manufacture mobile video phones with high quality screens and extended battery life will continue to drop considerably over the next few years, and as that happens, service providers will want to make sure they have the phones with the most revenue-generating potential in the hands of their subscribers. We expect the number of mobile video phones to quadruple between 2007 and 2011," said Jeff Heynen, directing analyst for IPTV at Infonetics. Other highlights from the Infonetics report include: - Worldwide service provider revenue from mobile video services nearly tripled in 2007 and is expected to nearly triple again in 2008. - Advertising will play a major short- and long-term role in ensuring the profitability of mobile video services, and mobile operators will be working throughout 2008 with advertisers and media buying agencies to sell their mobile video ad avails, which should become more prevalent in mid-2009. - As more mobile devices emulate the look and feel of the iPhone, much like Samsung's Instinct and LG's VU, and become more widely available, subscribers will be more likely to subscribe to, and stick with, a mobile video service. - Vendors of video processing and head-end equipment are lining up with mobile network equipment suppliers to help speed the roll-out of mobile video networks; partnerships and acquisitions along these lines will continue as the mobile video opportunity becomes clearer around the world. According to Infonetics Research, the combined Internet protocol television (IPTV) and switched digital video (SDV) equipment market increased 12 percent sequentially to $1.3 billion worldwide in 1Q08.
Infonetics' market study indicates revenue growth is being driven by growing numbers of service providers rolling out new IPTV networks or expanding existing networks to support more subscribers. The market is also getting a push from cable MSOs introducing switched video capabilities into their digital TV networks to free up bandwidth and offer more high definition (HD) content to their subscribers. "While most of the segments we track in the IPTV market are seeing consistent quarterly growth, IPTV middleware is going to be an especially interesting segment to watch. We're expecting an IPTV middleware spending spree over the next few quarters because a lot of the early IPTV service providers are running into scaling issues with their off-the-shelf middleware" said Jeff Heynen, directing analyst for IPTV at Infonetics Research. "Those providers are going to have to replace their IPTV middleware with a more robust solution to replace or augment their first-generation deployments. Middleware issues are one of the main root causes of IPTV rollout delays, so early hiccups have to be addressed quickly." Clearly, the primary scalability-challenged systems offender is the now notorious Microsoft IPTV platform. Other highlights from the Infonetics study include: - The number of IPTV subscribers is forecast to hit 93 million worldwide by 2011. - Worldwide IP set-top box revenue grew 10 percent in 1Q08 over 4Q07. - Motorola continues to lead the worldwide IP set-top box (STB) market in 1Q08, although its closest competitors made major inroads this quarter, reducing Motorola's lead. - ADB takes the lead in 1Q08 in worldwide hybrid IP/over-the-air STB market share. - Cablevision was the first to roll out switched digital video; it will soon be followed by other MSOs in North America, then those in Europe/Middle East/Africa (EMEA) and Asia Pacific (APAC), who face an uphill battle for triple play subscribers - France remains the hotbed of IPTV activity, with Orange, Free, and neuf all battling for IPTV subscribers. - Telco IPTV operators in Western Europe, particularly France, Sweden, and Italy, continue to "give-away" their IPTV service to hold on to their broadband subscribers. Social networking has become an integral part of the Internet experience, however, after 13 years of applications in the U.S. market, revenue generation is not what it was once predicted to be, according to a recent market study by In-Stat.
The solution is to find different models -- innovative business methods -- to capitalize on the wealth of data social networking sites collect, the high-tech market research firm says. Affiliate advertising, the selling of virtual goods, micro-payments, social network site merchandising, and data mining are all viable alternatives to traditional revenue generation models. "Development of niche social networking sites is an essential piece of the monetization puzzle," says Jill Meyers, In-Stat analyst. "The more specific a social networking site is to a select group of users, the more targeted the advertising can become; the more loyal the membership will be because it caters to specific interests; and the more opportunities the site will have to be profitable." Their research provides a brief history of social networking, the groups that participate, different models of monetization -- both current and potentially future -- and contains the results of an In-Stat U.S. consumer survey about online social networking. I believe that niche group interaction, now enabled by social network platforms, is merely the current generation of online group communication that started with email lists, grew to incorporate threaded-message discussions, and various other types of online forum applications. In-Stat's market study found the following: - In-Stat forecasts 92.2 million social networking users in the U.S. by 2012. - 66.6 percent of respondents to the In-Stat U.S. consumer survey do not pay for premium services or features. - 16.7 percent of survey respondents use a mobile phone to participate in online social networking or video content sites. Worldwide mobile phone subscriptions will rise from 3.9 billion in 2008 to 5.6 billion in 2013, according to the latest market study by Strategy Analytics.
Discounting for people with more than one subscription, more than half of the world's population will be using mobile phones by early 2010, up from 40 percent at the start of this year. Asia-Pacific and the Middle East & Africa (MEA) are responsible for the current surge in mobile phone service subscriptions. Those areas will remain the engines for growth in the wireless market in the medium term, contributing to 80 percent of subscription growth through 2013. "These two regions may be driving the subscription count, but they contribute much less to global revenues," comments Phil Kendall, Director Global Wireless Practice. "Asia-Pacific and MEA account for nearly 60 percent of worldwide subscriptions, but less than 40 percent of revenues. Their increasing significance will reduce average revenues per subscription by 15 percent over the next five years." 3G networks will account for half of all mobile subscriptions by 2013. Susan Welsh de Grimaldo, Senior Analyst, adds "3G technologies will reach critical mass in more regions in 2008, driving worldwide subscriber numbers close to 500 million by year end." Next year, more than one third of all mobile service revenues will be generated by 3G technologies, even though 3G accounts for only one in six subscribers. According to Infonetics Research, the worldwide WiMAX equipment market, including fixed and mobile WiMAX equipment, increased 59 percent sequentially to $363 million in 1Q08.
Infonetics' latest report indicates the surge in the market was led by especially strong mobile WiMAX (802.16e) equipment sales, which jumped 141 percent this quarter to overtake revenue from fixed WiMAX (802.16d) equipment for the first time. "A significant number of new mobile WiMAX networks began rollout in the first quarter, and existing networks continued to scale up, driving sales in 1Q08. We expect healthy growth for the evolving mobile WiMAX market, which is seeing strong adoption from Tier 2 and 3 carriers." said Richard Webb, wireless analyst for Infonetics Research. Also, growth came from Tier 1 nationwide operators as well, like Sprint-Clearwire in the U.S., SK Telecom and KT in South Korea, Wateen in Pakistan, BSNL in India, and Vodafone and Orange in new territories. Highlights from the Infonetics report include: - The nascent mobile WiMAX phone and Ultra Mobile PC segments showed early traction, together increasing 171 percent sequentially in 1Q08; these devices have appealing, non-traditional form factors and capabilities and will play a major role in attracting new subscribers to mobile WiMAX networks. - The number of fixed and mobile WiMAX subscribers topped 2 million worldwide in 2007 and is expected to triple by the end of 2008. European WCDMA subscriptions passed the 100 million mark in May 2008, just over five years after the region's first commercial WCDMA-network launch, according to a market study by Informa Telecoms & Media.
At the end of May 2008, Informa says there were 101.5 million WCDMA subscriptions in Europe -- out of a total of 910.8 million mobile subscriptions -- taking WCDMA penetration to 11.1 percent of subscriptions. Penetration of WCDMA is generally highest in markets where the technology was launched earliest. Italy became the first market in Europe to offer WCDMA devices when 3 Italia launched services in March 2003. The country now accounts for a quarter of Europe's WCDMA subscriptions and has one of the highest 3G penetration rates, with 28.7 percent of subscriptions via WCDMA devices. Other markets where greenfield operator 3 launched in 1H03 also have high 3G penetration rates, notably Austria, Sweden and the UK. WCDMA-device sales in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have to date been far lower than in Western Europe. WCDMA subscriptions totalled just 7.8 million, or 1.9 percent of the total, according to Informa's market data. As a result, Slovenia and Georgia are the only markets in CEE where penetration of WCDMA has exceeded 10 percent of total subscriptions. As the cost of WCDMA devices falls worldwide, Informa forecasts that the CEE region will reach 10 percent WCDMA penetration by early 2011. A slight slowdown in the growth in WCDMA handset sales in Western Europe in 1Q08 was counteracted by an acceleration in sales of WCDMA/HSPA datacards and modems, which boosted the size of the total 3G market, particularly in Sweden and Austria. Dell'Oro Group reported that the worldwide set-top box market contracted 6 percent sequentially to $3.5 billion in the first quarter of this year.
The market was up 9 percent, however, compared to the year-ago quarter. The quarter's sequential decline was due to double-digit percent drop in the satellite set-top box (STB) market, which reflected seasonal weakness. The market for pay-TV services continues to see strong growth and competition, and these factors will continue to translate into healthy STB sales which are boosted by increasing volumes and average selling prices. Prices continue to rise as high definition (HD)and digital video recorder (DVR) functionality becomes a higher percentage of the overall product mix. In 1Q08, HD shipments for the first time surpassed standard definition shipments as consumers are increasingly choosing HD services and service providers are deploying HD capable set-tops ahead of demand. Echostar, which was recently spun off from Dish Network, edged out Thomson in the first quarter for the top position in terms of unit shipments. Seasonality also impacted the results of the combined Pace and Philips market share, according to the report. According to Light Reading, the arrival of high-definition (HD) video content delivered over the Internet will force significant changes in how network operators and content owners distribute video. It could result in a fundamental restructuring of the ISP business.
"Consumers now expect to find video content on the Internet, and expectations of high-quality video are rising. But, moving very large files to end-users places huge demands on existing infrastructures," notes Simon Sherrington, research analyst for Light Reading. "There's an emerging battle between CDNs and P2P upstarts for control of the primary relationship with video content owners." The choices made by content owners regarding their distribution partners will be governed by a wide range of factors, including how they have already encoded their content, the extent of their back catalogs, the likely size of the audiences for their content, the intended reach for their content, and the nature of the content. Specifically, whether the content includes live events or not. This is a complex set of issues, so it is not surprising that multiple solutions are being applied. Key findings of their market study include: - Although limited end-user bandwidth continues to hold back more robust use of live Internet TV, options available to end-users for viewing content continue to grow. - P2P applications are becoming mainstream, and P2P players are wooing ISPs and content owners. - The benefits of a hybrid CDN/P2P approach for delivery of HD video over the Internet are clear, but there is a battle for control of the primary commercial relationship with the content owner. - Some IPTV technology suppliers may be able to capitalize on the trend toward Over the Top (OTT) Internet video, but others face risks. According to the Synergy Research Group, in the first quarter of 2008 worldwide total managed WAN CPE and network-based services sales posted a 4.9 percent increase of $1.4 billion and are projected to continuing growing throughout the year.
The growth in the managed services market is fueled by businesses worldwide turning to service providers for managed metro Ethernet, IP VPNs, managed IP voice and IP security requirements. Enterprises are revamping their business models to increase their revenue, recognizing that their IT and networks are a critical component of their business profits. Additionally, they recognize that outsourcing their network management to service providers is one way to improve their business success and bottom line. Companies such as Cisco, Juniper and Alcatel-Lucent are working to educate service providers about the huge market in managed services and of the importance of providing end-to-end services for these businesses. Ray Mota, Chief Research Officer at Synergy Research Group said, "To stay competitive, optimization of business and financial models is the key. Enterprises recognize that they need comprehensive IT network services from service providers that can support their businesses with not only bandwidth but with end-to-end managed services." Service providers, in turn, are investing in cutting-edge technology and equipment and expanding their services to match their customer's requirements with fully customized, cost effective solutions. According to Synergy's assessment, Cisco leads the managed services market segment, dominating 67.3 percent of the overall market opportunity. Al Safarikas, Senior Director, SP Marketing at Cisco added "Certainly, as we look to the growing managed service market, a unique opportunity exists for xSPs to extend their leadership and benefit from the technology and managed services enablement offered by Cisco." Demand for software as a service (SaaS) business applications in the U.S. commercial sector is growing at a steady pace across all sizes of business and vertical markets, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.
Based upon their current assessment, steadily increasing U.S. hosted application revenues -- from $8 billion in 2008 to $16 billion by 2012 -- are expected, the high-tech market research firm says. "The main benefits of hosted applications that resonate across vertical markets are scalability, Total Cost of Ownership (TCO), and remote accessibility," says Jeff Jernigan, In-Stat analyst. "Also, the need for IT support for business applications is greatly minimized if not eliminated due to the centralized, vendor-supported management of the application." Their research covers the U.S. market for SaaS. It explores the drivers and inhibitors for adoption, as well as whom respondents would turn to for more information about these applications. Survey data from four vertical markets is presented and compared to results from respondents across the entire market. In-Stat's market study found the following: - The healthcare market is among the most satisfied current hosted application user segments. - The education market should be an important target market for providers, as it is a market full of thought-influencers. - Despite strong current adoption, hosted Web collaboration application providers need to do more to reach new customers. ![]() Parks Associates explored the implications of high-speed connections and the exponential growth of digital devices within U.S. homes, at the kickoff to their Connections conference. Their session on this topic featured analysis of the digital living industry and focused on trends in broadband and access services, video delivery, online content services, advertising, digital health, and in-home systems. "The percentage of U.S. households with broadband exceeded 50 percent in 2007," according to Kurt Scherf, Vice President and Principal Analyst. "By 2012, over 33 million U.S. households will have connections of 10 Mbps or more. As households add bandwidth, there is greater capacity for more devices and services, adding to the rich but complicated equation for digital living." Consumer habits in entertainment are changing in accordance with this surfeit of new devices and services. As of 2007, 50 percent of U.S. Internet households were watching short video clips online, and 25 percent were downloading short video files. DVR household penetration reached over 40 percent of the U.S. online population in 2007, further increasing the place-shifting aspect of video consumption. "No product is sold in isolation anymore," Scherf said. "A device connects to a network, which brings content and applications to the consumer both in and outside the home. This arrangement puts pressure on providers for customer support, which they should see as a new business opportunity. Technical support services for the digital home will be a $1 billion market by 2011." According to Portio Research, in 2007 wireless operators worldwide generated more than $800 billion in mobile revenues. This is expected to reach $1,094.9 billion by year-end 2012, growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.4 percent.
The $1-trillion mark is expected to be reached by year-end 2011. Although a rapidly growing subscriber base has led to growth in revenue for the mobile phone services industry, operator margins have shrunk over the years. Operators worldwide, faced with declining average revenue per user (ARPU) due to falling voice tariffs, are now looking at ways to counter smaller margins by building alternative revenue streams through mobile data services. Voice services still make up the lion's share of mobile services revenues -- in 2007, voice services accounted for approximately 81 percent of operator's total mobile service revenues worldwide. However, with an ever increasing focus on non-voice mobile services, this figure is forecast to decline to a little over 74 percent by year-end 2012. In 2007, revenue from mobile data services accounted for approximately 20 percent of total service revenue in Western and Northern Europe; 15 percent in Central and Eastern Europe; 24.5 percent in Asia Pacific; 18 percent in North America; 10.5 percent in Latin America; 7 percent in Africa; and 11 percent in the Middle East. The contribution of non-voice mobile services to total mobile services revenues is expected to increase significantly over the coming years, across all regions. Rather unsurprisingly, Short Message Service (SMS) contributes the largest share to total non-voice revenues and in 2007, SMS accounted for approximately 49 percent of worldwide mobile data services revenues. However, as other data services such as mobile music, mobile games, mobile e-mail, mobile instant messaging (IM) and mobile video gain popularity, the percentage contribution of SMS is expected to decline in the future, even though SMS traffic volumes will continue to grow worldwide. In 2012, SMS is expected to contribute approximately 37 percent to overall data services revenues. Worldwide mobile data revenue is expected to increase at a CAGR of 16.2 percent, reaching $251.9 billion by end-2012 from $102.4 billion at end-2006. Although revenue from all data services is expected to increase, the fastest rate of growth is forecast to come from mobile video services (CAGR of 68.2 percent), followed by mobile IM (CAGR of 58.3 percent). Starting with SMS, then MMS, then other messaging services and on to mobile entertainment services, music, video, LBS and more, Portio's report takes a detailed look at each mobile data service and each regional market, highlighting key country markets and traffic or download volumes in those markets. The latest market study from Informa Telecoms & Media shows that more than a third of TV homes in the Asia-Pacific region will receive digital signals in 2013, up from just 13 percent at the end of 2007.
The 12th edition of Informa's Asia Pacific TV report shows that China overtook Japan as the biggest digital market during 2007 and will continue to increase in importance by accounting for more than half of the region's digital total by 2013. Adam Thomas, author of the report, said: "China's sheer size makes it the region's most eye-catching market, but there has been progress pretty much everywhere. At the end of last year the region had 75 million homes receiving digital signals." This is more than ten-times the 2001 figure and paves the way for even greater expansion over the next five years. Informa expects the number of digital homes to be approaching 250 million by 2013. Informa's report forecasts that the Asia-Pacific region will boast 676 million TV households by 2013, an increase of 229 million since 1995. Thomas said when asked about the shift "With pay-TV generating almost $50 billion and TV advertising worth a further $70 billion, the prospects for reward from the region's TV business are impressive by anyone's standards." As you may recall, I've previously reported on the industry leading IPTV market development that was championed by PCCW is the Hong Kong market -- now a part of China. We should anticipate further innovations coming from this region's global leadership and local expansion. Infonetics Research reports that cable modem termination system (CMTS) revenue jumped 36 percent sequentially in the first quarter of 2008 -- to $279 million -- making 1Q08 the largest single quarter on record.
The Infonetics reports demonstrates that downstream and upstream CMTS port shipments also hit an all-time quarterly high. Universal edge QAM (UEQ) revenue and channel shipments are also up in 1Q08. 2008 is on track to be a banner year for the cable broadband aggregation hardware market, as cable TV operators look to DOCSIS 3.0 to fend off residential FTTx offerings from telco incumbents and competitive providers, and as they launch new services targeting the small and medium business (SMB) accounts of incumbent local exchange carriers. "The first quarter was driven by strong performance by Cisco, whose CMTS port shipments jumped 64 percent sequentially," said Mark Showalter, directing analyst for broadband networks at Infonetics Research. Highlights from the Infonetics market study include: - Cisco holds the lead in CMTS revenue in every region except the Caribbean and Latin America (CALA), where Motorola is #1 after posting a significant revenue increase, overtaking ARRIS, who is now the #2 CMTS market share leader in CALA. - The number of worldwide standard and wideband cable broadband subscribers is forecast to top 97 million in 2011. - By CY11, CMTS will make up 77 percent of the total cable broadband aggregation market, and UEQs will make up 23 percent as more MSOs use UEQs to bond downstream channels and provide more bandwidth for data and video services. Their report provides worldwide and regional forecasts and market size for cable broadband subscribers split by standard vs. wideband, CMTS upstream and downstream ports and revenue, and universal edge QAM channels and revenue. The benefits of seamless roaming between wireline and wireless networks is gaining some momentum, but many challenges remain before Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) is widely deployed, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.
Chief among these challenges is finding a compelling business case for most wireless carriers, who view FMC as a contra-revenue threat, the high-tech market research firm says. "This is clearly the case in the U.S., with the exception of T-Mobile, which has primarily been focused on the consumer market," says David Lemelin, In-Stat analyst. "In-Stat believes communications industry leaders will not be dissuaded by lagging felt need for FMC solutions by businesses, and will aim to develop compelling solutions that, once experienced, will lead to viral adoption over the next several years." The research analyzes current and planned adoption of various FMC solutions and discusses how industry market leaders will not be dissuaded by lagging felt need for FMC solutions by businesses, and will aim to develop compelling solutions that will lead to viral adoption over the next several years. A forecast of cellular/Wi-Fi dual-mode telephone shipments and business subscribers is provided. In-Stat's Market study found the following: - 20 percent of businesses with Wi-Fi capability use voice over Wi-Fi. - It remains to be seen whether FMC can be revenue-generating or simply become a differentiated throw-in to lure businesses to traditional and emerging wireline and wireless network services. - Despite lagging demand, dual-mode cellular/Wi-Fi handset shipments will increase significantly over the next several years, with SIP phones outstripping UMA phones. Wireless technologies are deployed everywhere. We've got wireless phones, wireless Internet and wireless home networks. Next, coming to a living room or commercial facility near you, is wireless high-definition television (HDTV).
However, the market is still in its incubation stage, with fewer than 100,000 devices expected to ship this year. According to a market study by ABI Research, optimistic forecasts point to 2012 as the earliest year for the milestone of one million wireless HDTV installations worldwide. Meanwhile, a battle of technologies is being fought. There are three contending wireless systems, loosely characterized as 5 GHz, 60 GHz, and ultra wideband (UWB). "5 GHz technology is better understood and more proven," says ABI principal analyst Steve Wilson, "but achieving the required data rates requires new approaches and more complex solutions. UWB technology has bandwidth advantages at in-room distances but drops rapidly at greater ranges. 60 GHz allows high data rates, but so far only one company is even close to a viable solution." Small numbers of 5 GHz and UWB devices are currently shipping. Demo products of 60 GHz systems are expected early next year. "Over the next two to three years, we're going to see one or two of these wireless HDTV approaches emerge as the primary ones," says Wilson. Perhaps you're wondering who would want wireless HDTV and why? Wireless will simplify some video installations and allow more flexibility in positioning TVs. There are both commercial applications -- digital signage, for example -- and in-home applications such as wall-mounting a flat-screen HDTV. The initial demand in the market is where traditional wired installation would be difficult or complicated. All the wireless HDTV silicon vendors are venture-backed start-ups and most established wireless vendors are waiting to see how the market evolves. Product manufacturers are moving forward with different strategies -- some, like Westinghouse and Belkin are initially targeting commercial and custom installers where there is clear value-add. In contrast, some TV manufacturers such as Sharp and Hitachi are targeting buyers of their latest technology, offering design-oriented, elegant products that come with a wireless connectivity option. Global revenue from digital asset management (DAM) solutions is expected to triple by 2013, according to the latest market study by ABI Research.
The research, which also covers conditional access and broadband video markets, indicates marked differences in adoption rates and market growth between the major industrialized regions, North America, Europe and Asia. "Certain common factors affect the growth of conditional access, digital asset management, and broadband video across all regions," says industry analyst Zippy Aima. "There is the recent proliferation of digital media content, especially video, and the rise of portable devices for viewing it. We can add the widespread availability of broadband data services to distribute it, and the need for systems that can store and deliver that content to the right people at the right time." Beyond those common drivers, however, differences emerge. In North America, the conditional access market is quite mature, and revenue is expected to reach a plateau starting this year. Telcos will earn the largest piece of that revenue, followed by the cable industry, with the satellite sector a distant third. The maturity of the North American market affects shipments of new conditional access servers too, which will see lower than replacement rates, while shipments in Asia will more than double in the same period. "After a slow start, IPTV is finally finding traction, particularly in Asia and Europe," adds Aima. "The pay-TV business model will do especially well, with the number of videos viewed increasing six-fold by 2013, while free content suffers a few percent decline." None of these markets is without its challenges. Although vendors and service providers have been quick to provide and adopt new conditional access solutions, the required infrastructure changes are slow and expensive. The explosion of online video also demands more bandwidth. With the security of both premium entertainment content and private data under threat, ever-stronger access control is needed. Amid some confusion about what really is and isn't a DAM solution, DAM vendors must also focus on integration: their tools must interact with a constantly changing array of other applications. The current economy has not affected U. S. Internet advertising spending -- total revenue increased by 23.9 percent to $7.1 billion in the first quarter (1Q08) compared to $5.7 billion in 1Q07.
IDC expects Internet advertising to continue to expand rapidly during 2008 even though advertising spending across all media will most likely be cut back. Google continued to extend its leadership position in the U. S. Internet advertising market in the first quarter. Its domestic net revenue continued to grow faster year over year than most other players, even as its growth rate continued to decline as the company's major market, search advertising, continues to mature. Gogle's estimated net U. S. advertising market share was 24.8 percent in 1Q08, up from 23.1 percent in 1Q07. "What happens is that the current economic crisis puts pressure on advertisers to save money and find more effective marketing channels," said Karsten Weide, program director, Digital Marketplace and New Media at IDC. "Effectively, the crisis accelerates the shift of advertising budgets from traditional media into new media." Even though IDC anticipates that the threat of a potential recession will decrease ad expenditure across all media by as much as 7 percent in 2008, IDC believes that quarterly online advertising growth will still increase at rates around the 15 - 20 percent range in 2008. IDC forecasts that U.S. Internet advertising spending will more than double in five years. IDC's recently released report covers the total volume and the growth rate of U.S. Internet advertising spending for 1Q08, the quarterly domestic ad sales, growth rates and market shares for the top U. S. new media companies and the major events affecting their business. Your local Auto Dealership radio adverts could be making their way to your mobile phone, mixed with a little music. A report from the National Association of Broadcasters outlines this result, from an anticipated increase in the penetration of FM radio receivers in American cell phones.
Their market study concludes that cell phone service providers, radio broadcasters, and handset manufacturers all stand to benefit from the expansion of FM-capable cell phones, a platform that could reach 257 million American subscribers. "Radio is a service that already reaches 235 million American listeners every week,"said NAB President and CEO David K. Rehr. "With 257 million cell phones currently in service, we're confident that implementation of a new FM-radio feature would result in rapid penetration, benefiting not only the radio business and American consumers, but the cell phone, electronics manufacturing, and music industries as well." The report, commissioned by the NAB technology advocacy program NAB FASTROAD (Flexible Advanced Services for Television & Radio On All Devices), outlines a number of potential benefits derived from FM radio capability on cell phones. They include increased cellular service subscriber satisfaction, ad-sharing opportunities, and reduced-cost on-air cellular promotions. The study also notes that cellular operators are increasingly dependent on revenue from non-voice services, including music downloads. The implementation of FM receivers on cell phones could provide a boost to music downloads, the report suggests, by facilitating the tagging of songs heard on the FM receiver for later purchase. FM receivers would also give cell phone users access to the Emergency Alert System (EAS) announcements that are relied upon as a lifeline for Americans during emergencies. A potential catalyst for broadcaster and cellular network provider partnerships identified in the report is the pending implementation of the Commercial Mobile Alert System (CMAS) as recently defined by the FCC in a Report and Order adopted by the Commission in April of this year. ![]() According to an Ipsos market study, the percentage of video consumed on a TV -- among online video downloaders and streamers -- declined from 75 percent in February 2007 to 70 percent in February 2008. A significant drop in overall share of "screen time" with the growing contingent of digital video consumers. In addition, the percentage of total screen time captured by movie theaters also declined significantly in the past year, mirroring an overall trend Ipsos has witnessed in traditional video consumption. Ipsos believes that streaming video online has become an activity many Americans aren't just experimenting with, but enjoy on a regular basis. Today, about half of all Internet users aged 12 and up have streamed a video file online in the past 30 days. Furthermore, it's caused many to adopt the PC as a primary channel they rely on for video entertainment. Overall screen time for the PC has nearly doubled its overall share with digital video consumers since early in 2007. Among the 52 percent of Americans age 12+ whom have ever streamed or downloaded a digital video file online, about one out of every five hours spent watching movies, TV shows and/or other types of videos is done so on a PC. However, watching video content on other portable devices is a niche activity for most adult digital video users, having invested in outfitting their living rooms with HDTVs and subscribing to cable or satellite television. Currently, teens aged 12 to 17 are the only age group that is watching a greater percentage of their video content on portable devices. |
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